Analysis: Bull-Bear Indicator Reaches Bullish Inflection Point, Signals of Market Recovery Strengthen

Finance ministers from six EU member states—Germany, Spain, Portugal, Italy, Poland and Austria—recently jointly sent a letter to Ireland, the current rotating presidency of the EU, calling on member states to discuss a mechanism at the upcoming EU Finance Ministers’ meeting in September to tax oil companies that have reaped "excessive profits" due to the Strait of Hormuz blockade and energy supply shocks.

According to monitoring by security firm Salus, a phishing website impersonating Hyperliquid was promoted through Google sponsored ads, leading one victim to lose around 550,000 USDC on August 13. After tracing the fund flow further, investigators confirmed the incident involved specialized "Drain-as-a-Service (DaaS)" infrastructure closely tied to the Inferno ecosystem. The DaaS service provides a range of tools including malicious scripts, admin panels, authorization instruction generation, one-time contract deployment, automated token theft, cross-chain withdrawals, token swaps, and fund aggregation, while supporting automated revenue sharing. In this attack, the phishing group handled purchasing Google ads, deploying the fake website, and providing final receiving addresses. Once the theft was successful, the backend automatically split the stolen funds per a preset ratio. Further fund tracking showed that multiple groups linked to this infrastructure had previously taken part in several large-scale phishing attacks, causing cumulative losses of about $52.74 million. This incident once again underscores the risk of phishing attacks that promote fake crypto platforms via search engine ads. Users should carefully verify website domains and ad sources when accessing trading platforms to avoid asset losses from fake pages.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted in a post that as Bitcoin’s price rebounds sharply, the proportion of short-term holder (STH) supply in profit has surged from 26.1% on August 17 to 74.9%, meaning nearly three-quarters of short-term holders who were previously in the red have returned to profitability. Meanwhile, the net trading platform flow of short-term holders turned positive from negative, rising to 28,600 BTC on August 24 and breaking through the key level of 25,000 BTC. Data shows that as the average realized profit of short-term holders turns positive, the amount of BTC they transfer to trading platforms has increased significantly, indicating rising potential selling pressure. If this indicator remains above 25,000 BTC while Bitcoin’s upward momentum slows, the risk of short-term profit-taking and distribution pressure in the market will further increase. The analysis points out that the rapid rebound in the profit proportion of short-term holders, paired with the simultaneous rise in inflows to trading platforms, reflects a coexistence of market recovery and potential selling pressure. If the profit supply proportion rises further above 90% while price momentum weakens, the risk of local overheating in the market will rise; conversely, if trading platform flow falls back to near zero and the profit supply remains above 50%, it is more likely that the market will enter a relatively healthy consolidation phase.

According to BIT (bit.com) market data, U.S. pre-market trading on Monday saw the semiconductor, storage, and optical communications sectors all edge lower. Semiconductor stocks were broadly down, with Lam Research (LRCX) falling 2.39%, Intel (INTC) down 1.7%, Applied Materials (AMAT) dropping 2.05%, and Arm (ARM) declining 1.96%. The storage sector trended downward in tandem, with SK Hynix (SKHY) down 3.02%, Micron Technology (MU) falling 3.18%, Western Digital (WDC) dropping 2.61%, SanDisk (SNDK) declining 4.08%, and Seagate Technology (STX) down 2.94%. Optical communications-related stocks led the declines, with Astera Labs (ALAB) falling 4.11%, Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) plunging 11.66%, Coherent (COHR) down 4.16%, Credo (CRDO) declining 3.34%, and Lumentum (LITE) dropping 4.35%.

According to a Reuters report, three Pakistani sources revealed that Pakistan's Army Chief Asim Munir spoke with U.S. President Donald Trump last week. Just a few days later, Munir is set to visit Tehran today to meet with senior Iranian officials. The conversation comes as the U.S. threatens to impose sweeping economic sanctions targeting Iran and its trade partners. It remains unclear what topics Munir and Trump discussed during their call.

According to market data from BIT (bit.com), U.S. pre-market crypto-related stocks were mixed, with: CRCL down 1.59%, MSTR down 0.36%, MARA down 1.15%, COIN down 1.37%, RIOT down 0.66%, BMNR up 0.51%, and PURR up 3.12%.