Polymarket Prediction: Probability of "Bitcoin dropping to $65k in March" Rises to 49%

**March 22nd** Onchain Lens monitoring reveals a Resolv attacker spent 200,000 USDC to mint 80 million USR. The attacker then converted USR to wstUSR before swapping back to USDC and USDT. To date, $17.24 million in USDC and USDT has been used to purchase 9,111 ETH. The attacker remains in the process of converting USR to USDC/USDT and may acquire additional ETH.

On-chain analyst Ai Auntie (@ai_9684xtpa) reported monitoring Resolv attacker activity as of March 22nd, with the following operations: - Minted 5 million USR by collateralizing 100,000 USDC; - Swapped 35 million USR for wstUSR; - Continuously converted wstUSR into USDC and USDT; - Used USDT to purchase ETH, currently holding $4.55 million worth of ETH.

March 22 — Tom Lee, chairman of Ethereum Treasury firm BitMine, told CNBC in an interview Wednesday that he’s sticking to his year-end S&P 500 target of 7,700. Lee noted the 7,700 mark was initially a conservative call, as it only factored in a mild price-to-earnings (P/E) expansion this year. While the war has brought significant short-term impact and uncertainty—including effects on monetary policy—he argued it could benefit the U.S. economy and stock market long-term. “By year-end, the market will shift focus from the crisis to the opportunities it presents,” Lee said. “Looking at eight major historical war events, the market typically bottoms out early in the conflict.” On whether the current market is overly optimistic, Lee pushed back: “We’ve already gone through a bear market cycle. Energy stocks were in a three-year bear market last year, financials were falling, and the MAG-7 are also in a downturn. Together, these sectors make up roughly 70% of the S&P 500.” “Even

March 22 — Per on-chain analyst Ai Yi (@ai_9684xtpa), Resolv reportedly suffered a vulnerability, resulting in 100,000 USDC being minted into 50 million USR. The token (USR) saw a short-term plummet to $0.257 (a 74.2% drop) and has since rebounded to $0.7847. Resolv’s team has yet to issue a response.

As of March 22, Coinglass data shows Bitcoin is trading at $69,275.33, down 1.93% over the past 24 hours; Ethereum is at $2,103.95, a 2.18% drop in the same period. Funding rates across major centralized (CEX) and decentralized (DEX) exchanges signal broad bearish sentiment, with short positions clearly dominating. Specifically, BTC and ETH funding rates on platforms including Binance have turned negative—shorts are continuously paying fees to longs to maintain their positions (see the attached image for detailed funding rates of major cryptos). **BlockBeats Note**: Funding rates are set by crypto exchanges to keep contract prices aligned with underlying asset prices, typically for perpetual contracts. It’s a capital exchange mechanism between long and short traders; the platform does not collect this fee. It adjusts the cost or profit of traders holding contracts to ensure contract prices track underlying asset prices. A 0.01% funding rate is the baseline. Rates above 0.01% i