Well-known trader: If Bitcoin holds above $78,700 on the weekly chart, it could confirm the start of a new bull market.

US President Trump said he may be open to meeting with the Iranian President, noting that some major events could happen in the near future. (Jinshi)

Renowned trader Killa said the "everything is priced in" chart tracks major catalysts across Bitcoin’s cycles and their post-event price behavior. He noted that during bear markets, negative news typically pushes BTC lower, leading traders to develop an inertia of shorting on any bearish headlines. But once high-timeframe trends shift, the same news may only spark temporary panic, after which Bitcoin absorbs selling pressure and resumes its rally. Recent market events include the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike, expectations around the CLARITY Act vote, and the bill’s failure to advance. Markets initially viewed these as reasons for Bitcoin to drop further, but BTC only briefly broke below its range low before bouncing back quickly, showing strong resilience. Even as narratives of a "third world war" gained traction, Bitcoin began reacting relatively positively to panic-inducing factors. Killa highlighted this performance as a key distinction between bull and bear markets: in bear markets, bad news drives prices down, while in bull markets, negative headlines may trigger trader capitulation, after which prices continue rising. He added that the key catalyst that confirmed the last cycle’s uptrend was the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, and this cycle’s equivalent catalyst could be the CLARITY Act. Bitcoin’s recent ability to digest multiple bearish factors is a key basis for his judgment that the trend has shifted.

Strategy founder Michael Saylor has once again shared updates on the company’s Bitcoin tracker, stating, “A little more orange.” Following past patterns, the orange dots denote Strategy’s Bitcoin purchase records, so this move likely signals the firm will add to its BTC holdings. Strategy typically discloses changes in its Bitcoin holdings the day after such announcements.

Beating AI News: Qwen releases Qwen-Image-2.1 and makes its model weights available. The new model integrates text-to-image and image editing capabilities into a single architecture, with its visual generation component boasting only 7 billion parameters, while natively supporting 2K-resolution images and transparent-background assets. Editing capabilities are the key highlight of this update. Qwen-Image-2.1 can accept up to 10 reference images at once, enabling users to recombine multiple characters or products into a single image. For local edits, users can directly select areas, paint, or provide masks, eliminating the need to run a separate editing model. It can also directly generate RGBA images with alpha channels, meaning the model outputs transparent-background assets natively, and can extract subjects from photos. Diffusers, ComfyUI, vLLM-Omni, and SGLang were all integrated on launch day, so local workflows don’t need to wait for slow third-party adaptations. However, the "open-source" tag here requires a caveat: while the weights are publicly available, they are licensed under the Qwen Research License, which permits non-commercial research and evaluation only; commercial use requires separate authorization from Qwen.

On-chain analyst Yu Jin’s monitoring shows that over the past week, GMGN has sequentially transferred 23,550 BNB in transaction fee revenue to the trading platform Pionex, valued at roughly $17.34 million.

US SEC launches a five-year innovation exemption, paving the way for eligible tokenized US stocks to trade via Automated Market Makers (AMMs) on public blockchains. Analysts from Goldman Sachs and Citizens Group believe Coinbase, Robinhood, and Circle could be early beneficiaries of this policy. The new framework mandates that tokens retain shareholder rights including dividends and voting rights, while imposing limits on the number of stocks and trading volume trading platforms can offer. Goldman Sachs notes that Coinbase’s existing tokenized stock products already meet multiple required criteria, and its institutional custody business and Coinbase Tokenize may also stand to benefit. However, Coinbase’s current trading platform operates on a Central Limit Order Book (CLOB); to run a trading venue directly under the exemption, it still needs to build AMM infrastructure or route trades to decentralized exchanges (DEXs) on Base. Robinhood currently offers stock tokens to non-US markets as derivatives, providing only price exposure without the full shareholder rights required by the framework, so it needs to further adjust its products. Robinhood has previously announced plans to add 1:1 stock redemption and voting rights features. Analysts also argue that the growth of on-chain securities trading may drive demand for tokenized cash, indirectly benefiting Circle, with USDC potentially used for settlement and collateral in on-chain markets.