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TRON (TRX) — Onchain News & Whale Tracking

Real-time TRON whale movements, exchange flows and onchain findings tracked by Lookonchain. 980 updates and counting.

2026.07.28 19:05

Citrini’s View: Nvidia’s Moat Remains Deep; HBM4 Costs Doubling Drives Up Rubin’s Pricing, With Its High Gross Margins and Strong Pricing Power Unshaken.

Citrini analyst Jukan cited Fubon Securities' *2027 Semiconductor Outlook* report, noting that although HBM4 costs will jump sharply from HBM3e's $17–18 per GB to $31–32 per GB in 2026, pushing Nvidia's Rubin GPU price to roughly $78,000–$80,000, Nvidia will still maintain a high gross margin of 75%–80%, with its pricing power and cost pass-through capability remaining unshaken. The report also pointed out that custom ASIC-based HBM could have even higher costs, reaching $35–36 per GB, meaning HBM costs will double by 2027. Fubon Securities remains optimistic about AI market demand, arguing that despite recent concerns over AI inflation, token costs are a more critical factor driving cloud service providers' capital expenditures. At the architecture level, Nvidia's new rack is still planned to use the same number of compute chips, with scale-up within racks via cables and scale-out between racks via NPO/CPO. Additionally, Google plans to deploy 12 million to 15 million TPUs by 2028, with production capacity more than doubling from 2027 levels; Intel's EMIB production capacity is expected to rise to 24,000–25,000 units per month by the end of 2027, while TSMC is slowing SoIC expansion to prioritize scaling up CoWoS capacity. The core conclusion is that even with changes to its cost structure, Nvidia's pricing power, gross margin, and demand support in the AI computing ecosystem still form an unassailable competitive moat.

2026.07.22 20:10

Wintermute: Crypto markets have performed relatively strongly this week, but the uptrend has not yet been confirmed.

Wintermute’s market analysis states that June’s U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.4% month-over-month, marking the largest single-month decline since April 2020. The overall inflation rate dropped from 4.2% to 3.5%, below the market’s expected 3.8%. Markets have priced out the possibility of a July interest rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve, but renewed U.S. sanctions on Iran and the resumption of port blockades pushed Brent crude up 15.54% for the week. Risk assets showed clear divergence: Ethereum (ETH) rose 3.64%, Bitcoin (BTC) gained 1.46%, while the Nasdaq Composite index fell 4.16%. Following the U.S. CPI release, Bitcoin briefly surged from around $62,000 to $64,900, and ETH jumped as much as 7% to $1,884, triggering roughly $134 million in short-position liquidations within an hour. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a combined net inflow of approximately $191 million on Tuesday and Wednesday, ending a 10-day streak of net outflows. However, compared to June’s record $4.5 billion net outflow, the current inflow scale remains insufficient to confirm a sustained trend. Bitcoin held onto its post-CPI gains amid a sell-off in chip stocks, indicating the crypto market structure is repairing but has not yet formed a definitive upward trend. Wintermute believes that if spot Bitcoin ETFs maintain net inflows for a consecutive week and Bitcoin trades above $66,000 for several sessions, the market’s relative strength signal will be confirmed. This assessment could be invalidated if Brent crude breaks above $90 or the Strait of Hormuz is officially closed.

2026.07.18 14:59

Trezor Executive Responds to ZachXBT’s Questions: Hardware Wallets Remain the Strongest Self-Custody Option for Regular Users

In response to on-chain investigator ZachXBT’s earlier claim that “all hardware wallets are garbage and not recommended for signing transactions or storing funds,” Trezor’s Chief Commercial Officer Danny Sanders pushed back, calling the assessment overly one-sided. Sanders acknowledged that hardware wallet software or firmware updates can indeed disrupt critical operations like high-value transactions, and current products still have gaps in balancing security and usability. However, he noted that the scenario ZachXBT described primarily applies to advanced users managing large sums of assets, and a single hardware wallet is not the optimal solution on its own—so the entire hardware wallet category should not be dismissed based on that. Sanders also pointed out that using an iPhone dedicated solely to signing and storing assets has some value as an advanced security measure, but compared to hardware wallets, mobile devices have a larger attack surface due to features like Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, cellular connectivity, and iMessage. Additionally, hardware wallets come with an independent display that lets users verify transaction details before signing, making them still the strongest self-custody option available for regular crypto users. Furthermore, Tornado Cash co-founder Roman Storm partially agreed with ZachXBT’s view, noting that current mobile wallets lack support for BIP39 passphrases and air-gapped signing, and urged wallet developers to add these security features as soon as possible.

2026.07.14 14:49

Institutions: The strong U.S. dollar is suppressing gold prices in the short term, but may further reinforce gold’s status as a long-term reserve asset.

Gold prices have fallen roughly 25% from their year-to-date all-time high, weighed down by elevated interest rates, a strong U.S. dollar, and higher energy prices that have lifted holding costs, leaving the metal under notable short-term pressure. However, multiple market participants argue that this correction has not altered gold’s long-term investment thesis. Paul Wong, a market strategist at Sprott, attributes the recent gold decline to a stronger U.S. dollar, rising expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes, and concentrated liquidations by quantitative funds. He notes that the current gold price drop has significantly outpaced the actual rise in the dollar and short-term interest rates, indicating that the headwinds from high rates and a strong greenback have been largely priced in. Wong points out that while a stronger dollar tends to weigh on gold in the short term, over the long run, the stronger the U.S. currency, the greater the global incentive to seek alternative reserve assets to the dollar, which in turn boosts gold’s strategic standing as a neutral reserve asset. Against a backdrop of widening global fiscal deficits, central banks’ continued gold purchases, and rising geopolitical fragmentation, gold is gradually evolving from a mere inflation hedge into a currency hedge, reserve asset, and even a potential international financial collateral. He believes that gold and the U.S. dollar could strengthen in tandem over the long term for different reasons: the dollar benefits from its core role in the global financial system, while gold benefits from the trend toward diversification of global reserve assets. However, at the cyclical level, gold prices still tend to maintain an inverse correlation with the U.S. Dollar Index.

2026.07.10 16:55

Serenity: Optoelectronics and NVIDIA’s roadmaps remain unchanged, institutions may seize the opportunity to build positions

Serenity noted in a post that it’s interesting to observe retail investors capitulating. Bloomberg’s article on Meta’s computing was corrected via an internal memo, and two reports about delays were also denied by NVIDIA. As a result, the photonics and NVIDIA roadmap has not fundamentally changed: LITE remains fully sold out for the next two years, and this may extend to 2029; SIVE is set to ramp up production with GlobalFoundries, Jabil, Poet, Ayar, and other hyperscale suppliers; TSMC’s COUPE and its Taiwan-based vendors (such as Xunxin, Foci, etc.) have not vanished into thin air; AAOI’s projected monthly revenue of $471 million in H2 2027 remains unchanged; IQE’s epitaxial wafer contracts with Macom and Tower Semi are still in place; AXTI’s roughly 40% share of the indium phosphide substrate supply chain has not suddenly disappeared. Rocket Lab and the aerospace sector fell by 50% in 2025; Nebius and New Cloud dropped 50% in early 2026; and months ago, Samsung and SK Hynix plummeted due to LNG, helium, and oil fears sparked by the Iran conflict. Retail investors tend to build their beliefs around price movements and imagined trends, then lose faith when share prices decline, while institutions may be placing limit orders to profit from this dynamic. Beliefs should not be tied to a single day’s stock price, but rather to long-term growth in revenue or operating profit.

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