Serenity: Optoelectronics and NVIDIA’s roadmaps remain unchanged, institutions may seize the opportunity to build positions

Serenity noted in a post that it’s interesting to observe retail investors capitulating. Bloomberg’s article on Meta’s computing was corrected via an internal memo, and two reports about delays were also denied by NVIDIA. As a result, the photonics and NVIDIA roadmap has not fundamentally changed: LITE remains fully sold out for the next two years, and this may extend to 2029; SIVE is set to ramp up production with GlobalFoundries, Jabil, Poet, Ayar, and other hyperscale suppliers; TSMC’s COUPE and its Taiwan-based vendors (such as Xunxin, Foci, etc.) have not vanished into thin air; AAOI’s projected monthly revenue of $471 million in H2 2027 remains unchanged; IQE’s epitaxial wafer contracts with Macom and Tower Semi are still in place; AXTI’s roughly 40% share of the indium phosphide substrate supply chain has not suddenly disappeared. Rocket Lab and the aerospace sector fell by 50% in 2025; Nebius and New Cloud dropped 50% in early 2026; and months ago, Samsung and SK Hynix plummeted due to LNG, helium, and oil fears sparked by the Iran conflict. Retail investors tend to build their beliefs around price movements and imagined trends, then lose faith when share prices decline, while institutions may be placing limit orders to profit from this dynamic. Beliefs should not be tied to a single day’s stock price, but rather to long-term growth in revenue or operating profit.