Bitcoin (BTC) — Onchain News & Whale Tracking

Analysis: Bitcoin's MVRV percentile drops to 5%, a level that historically typically marks the long-term bottom zone.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost wrote in a post that after Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $60,000 in February and entered the capitulation zone, its MVRV percentile dropped below 10%, hitting the historically defined undervalued territory. Since June, the metric has shown a similar trend again. Unlike the traditional MVRV indicator, the MVRV percentile measures the current MVRV’s position relative to historical cycles, and by incorporating a historical probability dimension, it better reflects the current market environment. Currently, BTC’s MVRV percentile stands at around 5%, meaning Bitcoin has spent roughly 95% of its historical trading time at higher MVRV levels. This indicates BTC is significantly undervalued relative to its historical evolution, and such phases have historically coincided with long-term bottom regions.

A crypto whale that has held its Bitcoin position for six years has transferred Bitcoin worth approximately $130.5 million.

According to Onchainlens monitoring, a Bitcoin whale that has been hoarding BTC for six years transferred 2,000 Bitcoin (BTC) valued at approximately $130.5 million. Of the total, 800 BTC (worth around $52.2 million) was moved to Cumberland for over-the-counter (OTC) trading, while 1,200 BTC (valued at roughly $78.3 million) was transferred to a new wallet address.

South Korea’s KOSPI index has a volatility of over 60%, higher than Bitcoin’s, and leveraged ETFs further amplify the index’s price fluctuations.

According to Bloomberg, South Korea’s KOSPI index has posted a volatility of over 60% this year, nearly twice that of Japan’s Nikkei 225 index and even higher than Bitcoin’s. South Korean exchanges have triggered circuit breakers seven times so far this year through mid-July, compared to zero times in 2025 and just once in 2024. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix together hold over 50% of the KOSPI index’s weighting, making index funds largely a concentrated bet on AI chip performance. When the KOSPI hit an all-time high at the end of June, over 650 of its 831 constituent stocks still fell, underscoring the index’s heavy reliance on a small group of large chip stocks. South Korea’s leveraged ETFs have also expanded rapidly. Goldman Sachs data shows assets of South Korean leveraged ETFs tracking indices and individual stocks have surged from $5 billion at the start of the year to over $40 billion. These products, along with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, account for over 70% of South Korea’s daily stock trading volume, further amplifying price volatility. South Korean regulators suspended the listing of new individual-stock leveraged products on July 16. This year, South Korean retail investors have poured more than 100 trillion won into KOSPI stocks, while foreign investors have net sold roughly $108 billion in the same period, including over $40 billion withdrawn from SK Hynix. Goldman Sachs flags leveraged ETFs as a major risk to closely monitor in South Korea’s current market.

A crypto whale sets 10 major trading targets, posts details of his Bitcoin long position, and at one point notched unrealized profits exceeding $4.5 million.

A crypto contract whale, who "set 10 major goals first", has posted on social media about its Bitcoin trade: it went long on the leading cryptocurrency with 4x leverage, with unrealized profit once surpassing $4.5 million, delivering a 7.12% return on investment. Earlier, the whale noted in a post that recent trades have been dominated by short-term long positions, with no short positions opened so far. Currently, the risk-reward ratio for shorting Bitcoin is low, as the asset is relatively near its phased bottom. Its subsequent trend may gradually emerge and kick off a new upward rally, prompting the whale to avoid missing the potential entry signal. The current position may be held for medium and long term, but adjustments will still be made based on market conditions, and further short-term trading is not ruled out. Additionally, a large-scale correction in U.S. AI-related tech stocks over the next six months is not ruled out.

Hackers Attack Kenya's Presidential Official Website, Demand 5 Bitcoin Ransom

Kenya's government is investigating the hacking incident targeting President William Ruto's official website. On July 18, attackers briefly altered the president's official site page and demanded a ransom of 5 BTC, threatening to leak undisclosed data if not paid. Kenya's Cabinet Secretary for Information, Communication and Digital Economy stated that the government has activated its cybersecurity response mechanism and is conducting a forensic investigation in collaboration with relevant agencies. There is currently no evidence indicating unauthorized access to or leakage of sensitive data, and government digital services remain operational.

Bitcoin mining firm LM Funding rebrands as PowerCompute, shifting focus to AI computing power infrastructure.

Bitcoin mining company LM Funding America (NASDAQ: LMFA) announced it will rebrand to PowerCompute Inc. and adopt a new stock ticker "PWCM" effective July 22. The company stated that the rename marks its strategic transformation, as it leverages its existing 26 megawatts (MW) of owned power infrastructure to expand into high-performance computing (HPC) and artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure businesses. Currently, the firm operates two facilities in Oklahoma and Mississippi, U.S., with 26 MW of power capacity, and plans to provide infrastructure services to AI computing clients. It will also continue holding Bitcoin assets as part of its balance sheet.

CZ: AI cannot solve inflation, and Bitcoin has unique value storage attributes.

Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) recently posted on social media that artificial intelligence (AI) and Bitcoin (BTC) serve distinct functions: AI drives productivity gains, while Bitcoin is used to hedge against inflation and preserve wealth. CZ stated, “AI is great, but it can’t protect you from inflation—Bitcoin can.” He noted that markets often view AI and Bitcoin as two top investment themes, but they are fundamentally different: AI is a technology that boosts corporate efficiency and economic productivity, while Bitcoin is a digital asset with a fixed supply. He pointed out that the AI industry is growing rapidly, with global companies pouring billions of dollars into infrastructure such as AI software, data centers, and chips, driving transformations across sectors including healthcare, finance, and manufacturing. However, AI companies can issue additional shares to raise capital for expansion, so their investment value depends on corporate performance and market competition. In contrast, Bitcoin has a fixed total supply of 21 million coins, making it an undilutable scarce asset for holders. CZ believes this feature gives Bitcoin long-term value storage properties, acting as a hedge when fiat currency purchasing power declines due to inflation. CZ has previously noted that the AI boom could draw some capital away from the Bitcoin market. As AI firms like OpenAI and Anthropic attract more investor attention, some investors may sell other assets to allocate to AI-related investments. However, CZ argues that AI and Bitcoin are not competitive—they should be viewed as complementary assets: AI drives technological advancement and productivity gains, while Bitcoin offers a store of value unaffected by supply expansion.

Peter Brandt: Bitcoin’s bear market may bottom on October 4, and its performance over the next two to three years could outperform AI stocks.

Renowned trader and chart analyst Peter Brandt has predicted Bitcoin will bottom out on October 4, 2026, in its current market cycle, arguing that investing in the leading cryptocurrency now could yield better returns over the next two to three years than AI stocks. In an interview, Brandt said while precisely timing a market bottom is extremely challenging, he has long stood by this assessment. He believes Bitcoin’s price could still decline further, even dropping below $50,000 to the mid-to-high $40,000 range. Brandt noted all major Bitcoin bear markets in history have seen drawdowns of over 80%. Calculating from the current cycle’s peak of roughly $120,000, in an extreme scenario, Bitcoin could fall to $50,000 or lower. He pushes back against the market’s current view that a bottom has formed around $60,000, explaining that market bottoms typically do not occur during periods of neutral sentiment, but rather when investors panic, trading volume surges, and confidence collapses. On investment choices, Brandt argues AI stocks carry significant valuation risks and may fail to deliver satisfactory returns over the next two to three years. If he had $10,000 to allocate today, he would split it equally: 50% in Bitcoin and 50% in precious metals. Brandt projects Bitcoin’s next cycle peak will hit in 2029, with a target price range of $250,000 to $300,000. He has previously stated Bitcoin could eventually reach $1 million, though the timeline may extend to around 2030.

Bitcoin rebounds to break through $65,000.

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has rebounded to break through the $65,000 mark, with a 0.90% increase in the past 24 hours.

Strategy did not purchase Bitcoin last week, and its U.S. dollar reserves rose to approximately $3.23 billion.

Strategy did not purchase Bitcoin last week, and its U.S. dollar reserves rose to approximately $3.23 billion (an increase of about $225 million).

Crypto whale sets 10 major targets: Anticipates Bitcoin is about to begin a new rally, while US AI stocks may face a major correction in the next six months.

A crypto whale using the handle "先定 10 个大目标" posted on X, stating that his recent Bitcoin trades have all been short-term long positions—he hasn’t taken any short trades because shorting at this point offers poor cost-effectiveness. He added that Bitcoin is currently at a relative temporary bottom, and he anticipates the asset is about to break out and enter a new upward trend. Worried about missing the breakout signal, the long position of 69.4 BTC he opened on the 18th could be treated as a medium-to-long term trade, though he may adjust it based on market conditions and doesn’t rule out locking in short-term gains from fluctuations. He also noted a major correction in U.S. AI-related tech stocks is possible over the next six months.

A trader took a 40x short position on Bitcoin worth $10.4 million.

According to monitoring by Onchain Lens, a trader has opened a 40x short position worth $10.4 million in Bitcoin. Additionally, he holds a 10x short position worth $463,000 in ZEC.

French bitcoin treasury firm Capital B will carry out a 1-for-10 reverse stock split.

French Bitcoin treasury firm Capital B announced a 1-for-10 reverse stock split of its share capital. The move will run from August 6 to September 7, and will not directly impact the total value of the company’s shares. Upon completion of the split, the number of outstanding shares will decrease accordingly, with the share price adjusted proportionally.

Bitcoin Whales Split: Giant Addresses Continue Accumulating, Mid-Sized Holders Accelerate Selling

Crypto analyst Amr Taha has noted a clear divergence in recent dynamics among Bitcoin holders: large whales continue accumulating Bitcoin, while medium-sized wallets are selling off at an accelerating pace. Specifically, wallets holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC added a net ~66,700 BTC over the past 60 days, near the 68,000 BTC level set on June 16. By contrast, wallets holding 100 to 1,000 BTC recorded a net sell-off of roughly 77,800 BTC, marking one of the most aggressive sell-off periods in current data. Historical data shows that the behavior of wallets holding 100 to 1,000 BTC aligns with key short-term market turning points. On April 25, this group’s net accumulation exceeded 92,000 BTC. About 10 days later, Bitcoin entered a short-term correction, ultimately falling around 29%. Amr Taha argues that continued accumulation by large holders reduces immediately available supply, particularly during periods when smaller groups are actively distributing Bitcoin. While group data alone cannot determine future price trends, the current shift of supply toward large wallets may signal positive mid-term momentum for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin option implied volatility has plunged to rock bottom; three times so far this year, it has consistently signaled significant Bitcoin price swings.

Crypto analyst Murphy pointed out that Bitcoin’s option implied volatility (IV) is currently extremely low, with the 1-week IV at 33% and the 1-month IV at 34%—both below the 40% historical range, signaling potential "sharp price swings" in the market. Murphy’s statistics show two similar cases in the past year: 15 days after IV fell below 40% in early January, BTC dropped from $97,000 to $62,000; 14 days after IV dipped below 40% at the end of April, BTC declined from $82,000 to $60,000; and after June 15, BTC fell from $66,000 to $58,000. Murphy noted that low IV stems from market consensus, accumulated volatility arbitrage capital, and market makers’ short gamma mechanism—factors that together amplify the impact of unforeseen events. He reminded derivatives traders to prepare accordingly.

A Bitcoin whale holding over $100 million in long positions closed their positions an hour ago.

According to Yuqing Monitoring, a whale added to its Bitcoin long positions to reach $108 million this morning, at an average entry cost of $63,958. This afternoon, the whale closed out all its positions amid Bitcoin’s downward trend, netting a final profit of $280,000.

Well-known trader says Bitcoin will not fall below $50,000, waiting for the October FOMO rally.

Swiss crypto elite trader Doctor Profit (@DrProfitCrypto) stated in a post today that the widespread market expectation of Bitcoin hitting a bottom between September and October amid its four-year cycle is a contrarian signal, meaning the traditional consensus-based bottom may not materialize, while the probability of BTC falling below $50,000 remains low. Profit has deployed all his short-selling profits to purchase Bitcoin at approximately $64,000, and plans to allocate 5% of his capital daily to gradually accumulate BTC in the $54,000–$64,000 range, balancing his positions with a 4:1 BTC-to-ETH ratio. He emphasized upcoming institutional catalysts: BlackRock’s tokenization platform launch in October and a potential clear regulatory bill in August, which will bring narratives around 24-hour stock trading and blockchain legalization, possibly triggering early FOMO and pushing prices higher. A prominent crypto figure with nearly 500,000 followers on X, Profit is known for his expertise in market psychology, Bitcoin trading, and stock trading. He previously executed a successful short position on Bitcoin near $120,000 in September 2025, and recently closed all his short positions in Bitcoin and over 100 altcoins to adopt a spot accumulation strategy.

Analysis: Binance and Bybit recorded over $2.3 billion in stablecoin outflows over the past 30 days, while Bitcoin (BTC) liquidity continues to contract.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated in a recent post that stablecoin reserves on Binance and Bybit have been steadily declining, with a combined outflow of more than $2.3 billion over the past 30 days, a trend reflecting insufficient new liquidity in the crypto market. Binance’s stablecoin reserves decreased by roughly $1.55 billion in that period, while Bybit’s fell by approximately $786 million, bringing the total outflow from the two major exchanges to nearly $2.3 billion. Bitcoin has been fluctuating around the key $60,000 level for about 165 consecutive days; although it briefly surged past $80,000 in May, the upward momentum could not hold. The current market lacks new capital inflows, with weak new demand for both BTC and the overall crypto sector. Exchange stablecoin reserves have been on the decline since the start of the year, with outflows dominating, signaling that investors are reducing their fund allocations to exchanges, and some capital may even be exiting the market. Liquidity contraction and cautious market sentiment have become major obstacles for BTC to break out of its current trading range.

A certain crypto whale continues to add to its Bitcoin long positions, lifting the position value to $108 million.

According to EmberCN’s monitoring, a crypto whale added to its long Bitcoin (BTC) position 50 minutes ago, currently holding 1,662.5 BTC, with the position valued at roughly $108 million. Data shows the whale’s average entry price for its BTC long position is $63,958, bringing an unrealized profit of approximately $1.38 million. Due to the use of high leverage, its liquidation price is relatively close to the current level, at around $63,142.

The yield on the U.S. 30-year Treasury auction has hit its highest level since 2007, potentially putting pressure on risk assets such as Bitcoin.

According to data from the Kobeissi Letter, the latest auction yield on the U.S. 30-year Treasury bond has risen to 5.06%, the highest level since 2007, pushing long-term U.S. Treasury yields back above 5%. For comparison, the yield on the same-term U.S. Treasury bond stood at around 2% at the start of 2022. Analysts argue that the rise in long-term yields means an increase in the risk-free rate, which will raise the discount rate for risky assets, creating structural pressure on high-risk assets like Bitcoin. The current risk-free rate above 5% has raised the allocation threshold for speculative funds, while the rising cost of debt financing due to expanding fiscal deficits has also sent risk-off signals to the market in the short term. Additionally, the boom in artificial intelligence infrastructure investment is further intensifying competition for funds. Large tech companies continue to issue bonds to finance AI construction, competing with the U.S. government for market funds, which further pushes up long-term interest rates. The market is watching the 5.20% level, a high point hit in May this year. If yields break through this level, it could signal that long-term rates will continue to rise, leading to further tightening of financial conditions.

Analysis: Bitcoin will not bottom out this quarter; the current sideways consolidation is a false stability, with the real bottom and accumulation window arriving in October.

Market analyst Noname has published a post refuting the current "bottom is already here" narrative, arguing that calling a bottom is premature. The current sideways consolidation essentially reflects indecision, with "hesitation at this level usually preceding a downward breakout before an upward move." The analyst outlined a clear path forecast for the second half of 2026: July will see "false stability" and a bear trap rally, with volatility to flush out weak positions; August will mark the start of the real decline, testing the $50,000 level for the first time; September will extend downward pressure, with a W-bottom structure beginning to form; October will be the actual bottom and accumulation zone, at which point participation strategies will turn aggressive; November will show initial signs of recovery, with prices starting to rebound from the bottom; December will bring the possibility of returning to $100,000 for the first time since the bear market began. The analyst emphasized that the final sell-off is still imminent, though most refuse to believe it. "Don’t let the sideways movement fool you." In terms of rhythm, the decline since the June high is a full liquidation of the three-year rally. Previous bear cycles all ended with corrections of over 80%; the current price is roughly 50% down from its all-time high, so if history repeats, lower targets should still be within expectations. The analyst predicts the final bottom will not drag into the fourth quarter—this cycle will complete in the third quarter. An oversold zone with expanding volume may be observed between August and September, followed by a breakout in the fourth quarter, and returning to $100,000 by year-end will be the minimum rebound target needed for bulls to repair structural damage.

Michael Saylor once again released Bitcoin tracker data, potentially signaling another BTC accumulation.

Michael Saylor, founder of Strategy, has once again released updates related to Bitcoin Tracker. He stated, "What’s next?" According to historical patterns, Strategy always discloses details of its Bitcoin holdings increase the day after such related announcements are made.

Renowned trader closes all crypto short positions, resumes buying Bitcoin spot

Renowned crypto trader Doctor Profit announced in a post that he has closed all his cryptocurrency short positions, including Bitcoin shorts established in the $115,000–$125,000 range, another Bitcoin short in the $79,000–$82,000 range, and over 100 altcoin shorts opened in recent months, noting that all these positions have generated significant profits. He also said he has repurchased Bitcoin spot at $64,000, marking his first long-term allocation since September 2025. His plan is to invest 5% of his planned capital daily in spot Bitcoin purchases when the price is in the $54,000–$64,000 range, for up to 20 days total; if the price approaches $54,000, he will increase his buying activity. Doctor Profit pointed out that the current market is showing clear "herd behavior": investors who were previously bullish on Bitcoin up to $150,000 at high levels are now widely waiting for the cryptocurrency to drop to $40,000–$50,000, and are targeting September or October as the bottom of the four-year cycle. When a large number of investors are waiting for the same price level and time point, the market may not move as expected, so he chose to build positions in advance and judges that this cycle’s bottom may arrive earlier than the market’s general expectation. He also cited regulatory clarity, asset tokenization infrastructure, and progress in institutional adoption as the structural reasons for his shift to buying, and retracted his previous prediction that Bitcoin would fall to $40,000–$50,000. However, he still holds all his S&P 500 short positions, arguing that the crypto market has completed a large repricing, while U.S. stock valuations remain elevated.

Analyst: If Bitcoin fails to effectively break through $66,000, the risk of a phased top rises.

Glassnode’s lead research analyst CryptoVizArt noted in a post that the short-term holder cost basis distribution heatmap shows a new round of coins shifting to new buyers in the $62,000–$65,000 range during Bitcoin’s rebound from $57,000. He pointed out that this structure has two sides: on one hand, buyers’ active accumulation during the rally could form a new cost basis support, paving the way for Bitcoin to test levels of $66,000 and higher. On the other hand, this round of coin accumulation is heavily concentrated toward the end of the local rebound. If Bitcoin fails to break above $66,000 convincingly, the risk of the market forming a short-term top will rise. $66,000 is the key short-term level to judge the above two scenarios.

A crypto whale has increased its long position in Bitcoin (BTC) to 1,660 BTC, worth approximately $107.36 million.

According to Lookonchain's monitoring, whale 0x66f8 has been continuously going long on Bitcoin (BTC), with its long position now expanded to 1,660 BTC, valued at approximately $107.36 million, and a liquidation price of $63,123.

Analyst: Bitcoin bear market may be nearing its end, short-term holders' cost has dropped to $69,000.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost wrote that Bitcoin’s bear market has lasted roughly 9 months, affecting both short-term and long-term holders. The cost basis of short-term holders has fallen below that of long-term holders, a trend confirmed over three days, triggering a "bear market nearing its end" signal. This metric excludes BTC held for more than seven years when calculating long-term holders’ cost basis, to more accurately reflect economically active long-term positions. Darkfost stressed that this signal does not mean the bear market will end immediately or that the market bottom is already locked in; instead, it signals the market may be entering the final phase of the bear market, during which a dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategy is likely more rational. He noted that if short-term holders’ cost basis later rises back above long-term holders’ cost basis, this will mark a confirmation of the start of a bull market, serving as a reference to end DCA. Currently, short-term holders’ cost basis has dropped from $112,500 to $69,000.

Bitcoin has a 74% probability of rising to $70,000 this year.

Prediction market platform Polymarket puts the probability of Bitcoin rising to $70,000 this year at 74%. It also assigns a 34% chance of Bitcoin hitting $80,000, and a 17% probability of it reaching $90,000.

Michael Saylor: Enterprise adoption is essential for Bitcoin to become a global monetary network.

Michael Saylor, founder of MicroStrategy, stated in a post that the corporate organizational structure allows people to collaborate around a shared mission within a legal framework, while operating with higher efficiency, transparency, credibility, scale, resilience, and sustainability. For Bitcoin to become a global monetary network, corporate adoption is not only necessary, but also an inevitable and welcome development trend.

CryptoQuant: Retail investors continue to sell Bitcoin, while whales are absorbing the selling pressure.

According to data from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin (BTC) demand fell further yesterday compared to the prior day, with negative demand driven mainly by the spot market as selling pressure persists. However, data shows that the volume of BTC flowing into "accumulation addresses" is rising, indicating that some sold-off tokens are being absorbed by long-term holders. The spot market has seen continuous capital outflows since November last year, but whale investors are absorbing these sell orders. Analysts believe that when Bitcoin's spot demand turns positive again, the market may see a strong rally.

Analysis: Strategy’s liquidity issues have improved, but a systematic framework for Bitcoin trading still needs to be established.

CryptoQuant Research Head Julio Moreno said Strategy’s newly launched digital credit capital framework has largely resolved the company’s short-term liquidity issues, though a more disciplined Bitcoin buy-and-sell mechanism still needs to be established. CryptoQuant noted that since the new framework was announced, Strategy has sold 3,588 BTC (worth approximately $216 million) to replenish its dollar reserves and raised $466.7 million by selling MSTR stock, lifting its dollar reserves from $1.44 billion to around $3 billion. The preferred dividend coverage period has also risen from roughly 14 months to 29 months. As of now, the company’s Bitcoin holdings remain unchanged at 843,775 BTC. However, CryptoQuant believes Strategy has yet to resolve two critical issues: First, when it will resume Bitcoin purchases, as the current framework only regulates financing methods and lacks a valuation-based systematic position-building model, leaving it at risk of repeating the “continuous high-price buying” scenario in the future. Second, how to sell a portion of its Bitcoin during the next bull market; the existing framework allows BTC sales to replenish reserves, pay dividends, and repurchase shares, but no long-term capital management strategy has been developed for phased position reduction or risk hedging at cyclical peaks. CryptoQuant stated that establishing trading discipline spanning bull and bear market cycles will be a core component of Strategy’s active capital management system.

Yesterday, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of $132.3 million, marking four consecutive trading days of inflows.

According to Farside’s monitoring, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $132.3 million yesterday, marking their fourth consecutive trading day of net inflows. Specifically, IBIT recorded a net inflow of $136.5 million, while FBTC posted a net outflow of $4.2 million.

A crypto whale has added 1001 BTC to its holdings once more; last year, it purchased over $290 million worth of Bitcoin via over-the-counter (OTC) trades.

According to monitoring by Onchain Lens, a whale address that previously accumulated over $290 million worth of Bitcoin through Galaxy Digital last year has added to its holdings, receiving 1001 BTC valued at approximately $64 million. The relevant addresses include the main wallet bc1qexplq4mlp7umxavr2qceaqzc2w8fzc9enpty55 and its associated address 39aNzneDLY6oHifvRpxwXaeCPkP9gcZxNx.

Associated addresses linked to Lombard Finance have deposited 750 Bitcoin to Galaxy Digital, likely for an over-the-counter (OTC) transaction.

According to monitoring by Onchain Lens, a wallet associated with Lombard Finance sent 750 BTC (approximately $47.8 million) to Galaxy Digital, likely related to an over-the-counter (OTC) transaction.

Bloomberg analysts: Bitcoin may replicate the trend following the launch of gold ETFs, undergoing a "painful pullback" and a "patience-testing recovery"

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said Bitcoin ETFs are likely to follow gold’s volatility trajectory, experiencing "stunning rallies" and "painful pullbacks" that will test investors’ patience. Balchunas noted that both gold and Bitcoin are non-yield-bearing stores of value that generate no cash flow. Their demand, driven by market sentiment, can lead to both "price surges" and prolonged stagnation. As such, Bitcoin ETFs may follow the same playbook: stunning gains, painful pullbacks, and a recovery that could test investors’ patience.

Following the opening of US stock markets, Bitcoin and Ethereum accelerated their downward trend; 'Maji' rapidly cut positions to avoid liquidation.

Per HTX market data, Bitcoin and Ethereum accelerated their declines after today’s US stock market opened. As of press time, Bitcoin trades at $62,554.81, down 0.84% over the past hour. Ethereum is holding just above the $1,800 level, currently at $1,810.62. In response, "Maji" has sharply cut its Ethereum long positions in the past hour. HyperInsight monitoring shows its 25x leveraged Ethereum long positions have been reduced to 3,500 coins, valued at $6.338 million, with the long positions’ liquidation price also dropping to $1,795.49—less than 1% away from the current price.

A whale deposited $17 million to open 10x long positions in Bitcoin and Samsung stock contracts.

According to monitoring by Onchain Lens, a crypto whale has just deposited $17 million into Hyperliquid to go long on Bitcoin and Samsung with 10x leverage. Its current positions are: 20 BTC (valued at approximately $1.26 million) and 7,600 SMSN shares (valued at roughly $1.2 million).

ARK Invest: Bitcoin’s decline diverges from whale accumulation, signaling a market cycle bottom.

ARK Invest released its Q2 2026 Bitcoin report, stating that Bitcoin fell approximately 14% in the second quarter, breaking below the short-term holder realized price, 200-day moving average, and on-chain average, with a still bearish technical outlook. However, the proportion of loss-making supply rose to around 54%, and the supply held by long-term holders hit a record high of roughly 14.85 million BTC, which ARK considers a potential signal of seller exhaustion. The report also pointed out that Bitcoin has not yet fallen back to its on-chain cost range of approximately $49,000 to $53,000, meaning downside risks have not been fully released. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of around 71,000 BTC in Q2, while Strategy’s STRC preferred shares dropped to a low of $74.57.

Glassnode: Bitcoin options market is firmly rebuilding bullish exposure

Glassnode released a market note stating that Bitcoin's options market has started to turn constructive. Implied volatility has dropped from 48 to 40, while the put/call ratio fell to a six-month low of 0.59. The data shows options traders are cutting downside hedges and rebuilding upside exposure, indicating market sentiment is gradually improving from the June panic, though volatility remains higher than May's lows. Currently, Bitcoin is consolidating around $63,000, with a dense negative gamma zone between $68,000 and $70,000. A breakout above this range could trigger more procyclic dealer hedging and amplify volatility.

Peter Brandt: Bitcoin may bottom out at $40,000, while the Nasdaq index shows a suspected top pattern.

Renowned trader and chart analyst Peter Brandt stated in a post today that the daily chart of the Nasdaq 100 Mini Futures (NQ) may be forming a "diamond" pattern, potentially marking a market top. Additionally, in a recent interview, Brandt predicted that Bitcoin could first rally by $10,000, then drop to a high of $40,000 before bottoming out in early October 2026. Drawing on Bitcoin’s historical cycle patterns, Brandt warned that the cryptocurrency could experience a false breakout; currently trading around $60,000, Bitcoin faces near-term downside risks. Brandt also emphasized his long-term bullish outlook on Bitcoin, projecting its price could reach between $300,000 and $500,000 by 2029.

Coinbase’s Bitcoin negative premium has persisted for 60 days, extending its all-time record.

According to Coinglass data, the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index has remained in negative premium territory for 60 consecutive days (since May 19), with its latest reading at -0.0908%. Earlier this year, the index notched 40 straight days of negative premium from January 16 to February 24, marking the longest consecutive negative streak since the metric’s launch—surpassing the roughly 30-day stretch of negative premium seen during the "1011 crash".

Bitcoin drops below $63,000, posting a 2.98% decline in 24 hours.

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has fallen below $63,000, currently trading at $62,968.46, with a 2.98% drop in the past 24 hours.

Yesterday, Bitcoin ETFs posted a net inflow of $79.1 million, while Ethereum ETFs recorded a net outflow of $28 million.

According to data from Farside Investors, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted a combined net inflow of $79.1 million yesterday. Of that total, BlackRock’s IBIT attracted $33.4 million, Fidelity’s FBTC $30.7 million, and Bitwise’s BITB $15 million, with no inflows reported for the remaining ETFs. For Ethereum ETFs, the segment saw a total net outflow of $28 million yesterday. Breakdowns: FETH had a net outflow of $11.2 million, ETHE $4.8 million, and ETH-related funds $14.3 million; ETHW logged a net inflow of $2.3 million, while BlackRock’s ETHA saw no inflows.

$1.2 billion worth of Bitcoin (BTC) options are set to expire, while Ethereum (ETH) put positions have remained at high levels for a consecutive month.

Crypto analytics platform Greeks.live reported that on July 17, 19,000 BTC options expired, with a Put-Call Ratio (PCR) of 0.9, a max pain point of $63,000, and a nominal value of around $1.2 billion. Meanwhile, 123,000 ETH options expired, with a PCR of 1.61, a max pain point of $1,800, and a nominal value of roughly $230 million. In terms of market performance, BTC has continued to fluctuate above $60,000 this week, having traded in the $60,000 to $65,000 range for over a month. Sharp swings in U.S. equities (SpaceX and storage sectors) have not yet had a noticeable impact on the crypto market. Looking at options positions, around 5% of options expired this week, leading to a slight drop in overall open interest, mainly due to low market volatility and reduced trading opportunities. BTC’s Gamma Exposure (GEX) is mainly concentrated around $64,000 and $70,000. ETH’s GEX is primarily in the $1,825 to $2,000 range, with a relatively dispersed distribution. Some traders have started positioning for a rebound via slightly out-of-the-money options. The proportion of large bullish trades has continued to rise recently, dominated by short-term bull spread buying strategies. Notably, ETH’s Put-Call Ratio has stayed above 1 for a consecutive month, hitting 1.61 this week. The high proportion of put options outstanding reflects clear market divergence on ETH’s future outlook, with intensified bull-bear rivalry.

JPMorgan: Strategy’s increased cash reserves send a positive signal, and demand for Bitcoin futures has also improved.

JPMorgan analysts noted in a recent report that Strategy has recently increased its U.S. dollar reserves from $2.55 billion to $3 billion, enough to cover roughly 20 months of preferred stock dividend payments, an encouraging sign for Bitcoin’s outlook. If Strategy can rebuild its U.S. dollar reserves to a level covering two to three years of dividends, it will ease market concerns that the company may be forced to sell Bitcoin in the future to cover preferred stock dividend payments. Meanwhile, despite sharp recent volatility in spot Bitcoin ETF flows, both Bitcoin futures and perpetual contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) recorded net inflows this week—flows typically driven by institutional investors rather than retail, in contrast to the outflows seen in spot ETFs. Additionally, leveraged ETFs linked to Strategy have seen relatively stable, positive net flows over the past seven weeks, driven mainly by retail buying, which has supported Strategy’s common stock price and prevented it from falling below the net asset value of its Bitcoin holdings. Strategy President and CEO Phong Le stated earlier this week that the company’s balance sheet is very secure; it will only begin to worry about debt-related risks if Bitcoin falls to roughly the $8,000–$10,000 range, and plans to issue more shares after STRC preferred stock returns to its $100 par value to further accumulate Bitcoin and expand its U.S. dollar reserves. JPMorgan also reiterated that Strategy is not a major structural threat to Bitcoin; a larger risk lies in the promotion of blockchain technology through permissioned systems, which does not benefit public blockchains or their tokens.

US stock market sell-off drags Bitcoin lower, while Micron falls more than 30% from its all-time high.

Bitcoin pulled back alongside U.S. stocks on Thursday, trading around $64,500 in a range, down roughly 1.5% from the three-week high it notched the prior day. Earlier, both U.S. June CPI and PPI came in below expectations, spurring brief gains for crypto assets and U.S. equities, but tech stocks were subsequently sold off. Micron Technology has now pulled back over 30% from its all-time high set on June 22. The Kobeissi Letter noted that retail investors are cashing in on tech stock gains, with net selling of Tesla and Apple hitting $200 million each over the past two weeks, while total retail stock trading volume rose to a record $370 billion. Market participants remain cautious about Bitcoin’s price trajectory. Exitpump said Bitcoin is testing the anchored volume-weighted average price (VWAP) calculated from its early-May high of $82,000, a level that could cap the current rally and trigger stronger resistance. Rekt Capital stated that Bitcoin has shown initial signs of stalling at its 50-month exponential moving average (EMA) near $65,900, and continues to believe the current trend could mirror the 2022 bear market, with the next macro bottom potentially arriving later this year.

Bankless Co-founder: Bitcoin may have entered a sideways consolidation phase, with the bottom largely in place.

Bankless co-founder David Hoffman published an article stating that Bitcoin’s current trend faces two possible paths: sideways consolidation to bottom out, or one final round of panic selling. He opines that Bitcoin is more likely to enter a sideways grinding phase, with its bottom already largely formed.

Analysis: Bitcoin block call options logged $1.65 billion in trading volume today, as traders are bullish on the cryptocurrency’s performance in the latter part of this month.

Greeks.live researcher Adam published a note stating that Bitcoin saw a sharp rise in bulk call option trading today, with a total of 25,766 BTC call options traded, carrying a nominal value of approximately $1.65 billion. Among these, the bull call spread strategy with strike prices of $70,000/$72,000 expiring at the end of this month saw nearly 10,000 contracts traded, becoming the most active contract. Adam noted that with only around two weeks left until month-end, the large-scale purchase of out-of-the-money call options roughly 10% above the current price reflects the market’s optimistic expectation for Bitcoin’s performance in late this month. However, the adoption of the low-cost bull call spread strategy also indicates that capital is still positioned tentatively rather than making aggressive bets.

Swedish listed company Bitcoin Treasury Capital has received approval to list its preferred stock product, BTC PREF.

Swedish listed company Bitcoin Treasury Capital has been approved to list Sweden’s first bitcoin-backed preferred share product, BTC PREF, on Sweden’s Spotlight Stock Market starting July 20, offering a 10% annual dividend.

Bitcoin falls below $64,000, Ethereum drops below $1,900

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has fallen below $64,000, with a 24-hour decline of 0.89%. Ethereum has dropped below $1,900, and its 24-hour gain narrowed to 1.3%.

CZ: Artificial intelligence cannot hedge against inflation, but Bitcoin can.

Binance founder CZ issued a bullish statement on Bitcoin: "Artificial intelligence is undoubtedly powerful, but it cannot hedge against inflation. Bitcoin can."