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Bitcoin (BTC) — Onchain News & Whale Tracking

Real-time Bitcoin whale movements, exchange flows and onchain findings tracked by Lookonchain. 8960 updates and counting.

2026.08.16 09:47

Harvard’s endowment fund discloses holding $2.21 billion worth of SpaceX shares, while its Bitcoin ETF holdings remain unchanged.

Harvard University’s endowment fund’s latest 13F filing shows that as of June 30, its holdings of BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) remained at 3.0446 million shares, valued at approximately $101.4 million — matching the exact number held at the end of the first quarter, ending two consecutive quarters of reductions. Harvard had cut its IBIT position by 21% in Q4 2025, followed by a 43% reduction in Q1 2026. Currently, IBIT accounts for roughly 2.4% of Harvard’s disclosed $4.26 billion U.S. equity portfolio. Its gold-related product holdings are worth more: as of the end of Q2, its combined positions in the iShares Gold Trust (IAU) and SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) total approximately $171.2 million. Harvard previously liquidated its BlackRock spot Ethereum ETF holdings worth $86.8 million, and added no new Ethereum-related positions in the second quarter. Harvard’s largest holding is SpaceX, with 12,935,100 shares valued at $2.21 billion, making it the largest single stock position disclosed in the filing. The total U.S. equity assets Harvard disclosed in this filing are approximately $4.3 billion, meaning SpaceX’s stake accounts for 52% of that total. Among other institutions, Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund Mubadala and the Abu Dhabi Investment Council each maintained their IBIT positions unchanged at 14.7219 million shares and 8.2187 million shares respectively, for a combined value of approximately $764 million. JPMorgan Chase increased its IBIT holdings from roughly 8.3 million shares to 10.4 million shares; Morgan Stanley cut its IBIT position from 17.3 million shares to approximately 16.5 million shares, a 4.5% reduction.

2026.08.15 22:22

Analysis: Bitcoin is in the "extreme discount" zone of the Rainbow Chart, with its downward deviation surpassing that of the previous bear market bottom.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted in a post that Bitcoin is currently trading in the lowest range of the Rainbow Chart model — "basically a fire sale price". This represents an extreme discount relative to the cryptocurrency’s long-term price trajectory, and is not merely a measure of how much Bitcoin has declined. The Rainbow Chart model compares Bitcoin’s current price to its long-term trend, so the gap reflects the market’s deviation from historical patterns. The volatility-adjusted Z-Score now stands at -2.293, the lowest reading since 2016 and lower than the -1.979 recorded at the 2022 bear market bottom. This metric accounts for volatility differences across distinct market cycles, meaning the current downward deviation from the model is more severe than that seen at the last bear market’s trough. Bitcoin is now in an extreme discount zone, with the volatility-adjusted Z-Score hitting a 10-year low. This signals significant undervaluation relative to the model, but it does not alone confirm the final market bottom. Extremely low valuations point to a potentially attractive entry range, though a market reversal would need separate confirmation. Note: The Z-Score is a widely used standardized statistical metric that quantifies how far a data point lies from the mean, measured in units of standard deviation.

2026.08.15 15:13

Cboe applies to the SEC for approval of the first U.S. 3x leveraged Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.

The Cboe BZX Exchange, a unit of the Chicago Board Options Exchange (Cboe), has filed a rule change application with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to launch the U.S. market’s first 3x leveraged Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. Per the filing, Cboe plans to list ETFs including 3x Bitcoin ETFs, 3x Ethereum ETFs, and 3x leveraged ETFs for gold, silver, crude oil, and natural gas. These products aim to deliver 3x the daily returns of their underlying assets by holding futures contracts from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) or the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX), with cash and cash equivalents serving as collateral. The proposed ETFs will operate as "commodity pools" regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), rather than the traditional ETF structure overseen by the SEC under the Investment Company Act of 1940. As leveraged products do not meet the exchange’s existing general listing standards, Cboe is required to file a special rule change application with the SEC and plans to concurrently submit an S-1 registration statement under the Securities Act of 1933. Cboe stated that this structure will provide an additional federal regulatory layer. The funds will be issued by Volatility Shares LLC and operated under VS Trust. Market analysts note that 3x leveraged ETFs are primarily targeted at short-term trading and professional investors, and are not suitable as long-term holding instruments. Previously, Volatility Shares had launched 2x Bitcoin and Ethereum strategy ETFs in the U.S., while Europe saw the launch of the first 3x and inverse 3x Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF products last year.

2026.08.14 23:03

Analysis: Bitcoin's short-term panic sentiment has eased, with the $60,000 to $70,000 range emerging as a key battleground.

Glassnode stated in a report that Bitcoin’s native options market remains generally sluggish overall, with implied volatility (IV) and skewness continuing to narrow, while positions are gradually concentrating around key strike prices, making the options market structure more distinct. Data shows Bitcoin’s short-dated IV has continued to decline, with the 1-period at-the-money (ATM) IV dropping to around 26%, while the 6-month tenor remains at roughly 39%. The term structure has steepened further, indicating traders’ low expectations for short-term price volatility, while still pricing in longer-term uncertainty. Demand for downside protection in the market has weakened, and overall option positions are no longer as defensive as they were previously. On the gamma exposure front, negative gamma is primarily concentrated in the lower $60,000 range, while positive gamma has gradually shifted to around $70,000. This means BTC is more likely to see larger price swings during downward moves, while upward approaches to the $70,000 level may be stabilized by market maker hedging. The options market’s defensive posture has eased somewhat, though it has not yet entered excessive complacency. The decline in implied volatility and skewness reflects easing short-term panic, while the concentration of gamma and strike positions indicates that the $60,000 to $70,000 range remains the key zone for Bitcoin’s next directional move.

2026.08.14 22:52

Morgan Stanley significantly increased its holdings of Circle to 8.32 million shares in Q2, and added to its positions in Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.

Morgan Stanley’s latest 13F filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) shows that as of June 30, it held approximately 16.5 million shares of BlackRock’s IBIT, a 23% increase from the 13.4 million shares held in the first quarter. However, due to a decline in Bitcoin prices during the quarter, the position’s market value fell to $549 million from $667 million, a roughly 18% drop. During the same period, Morgan Stanley also held 2.57 million shares of MSBT worth around $43.3 million, and increased its holdings in Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust, Bitwise Bitcoin ETF, and Fidelity’s FBTC, with FBTC positions rising nearly 38%. For Ethereum-related assets, its holdings of ETHA surged approximately 202% to 4.6 million shares, while its stake in Grayscale Ethereum Staking Mini ETF rose by around 26% to 5.1 million shares. Additionally, Morgan Stanley established new positions in Grayscale’s Solana Staking ETF and Fidelity’s Solana Fund, with respective market values of roughly $4.25 million and $2.26 million. In terms of individual stocks, Morgan Stanley’s holdings in Circle (CRCL) jumped from approximately 1.46 million shares to 8.32 million shares. It also expanded positions in crypto mining and infrastructure firms including Cipher Digital, Core Scientific, Hut 8, and Bitdeer. Conversely, it trimmed its Coinbase stake by around 550,000 shares, cut holdings in CleanSpark by more than 3.1 million shares, and liquidated its entire position of roughly 8 million shares in Bitfarms.

2026.08.14 22:31

JPMorgan boosted its holdings of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in Q2: its stake in IBIT rose by 25%, while its position in ETHA increased more than threefold.

JPMorgan Chase’s latest 13F filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) reveals that as of June 30, the firm held approximately 10.4 million shares of BlackRock’s IBIT—up roughly 25% from the 8.3 million shares it held in the first quarter, with a disclosed holding value of around $356 million. Over the same period, its position in BlackRock’s ETHA rose from roughly 267,000 shares to about 1.17 million shares, an increase of more than three times and exceeding four times its prior holding size. The filing also disclosed small holdings in XRP-related investment products for the first time, including 181 shares of Grayscale’s XRP product and 113 shares of Bitwise’s XRP ETF. Jonatan Randin, senior market analyst at PrimeXBT, pointed out that this 13F covers 18 investment management entities under JPMorgan, with some positions potentially linked to client trades or inventory management. Since 13F filings do not disclose short positions, it is impossible to assess JPMorgan’s net exposure or directional views on Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) solely based on these long positions. Separately, JPMorgan cut its holdings in multiple Bitcoin mining companies during the second quarter. Randin noted that as some mining firms expand into AI and high-performance computing, their status as proxy assets for Bitcoin prices is weakening.

2026.08.13 23:10

Garrett Jin: SK Hynix has rebounded to the take-profit zone, plans to buy Bitcoin on its pullback, and cautions to watch out for remaining share unlocks following SpaceX's short squeeze.

BTC OG and insider whale Garrett Jin released this week’s market report, characterizing South Korea’s market rebound as a wide-range consolidation rather than a new trend. SK Hynix retested the 1.42 million won level before a consecutive rebound, closing up 5.9% at 1,593,000 won on August 13. The KOSPI has rallied 20% from its July low to enter a technical bull market, but foreign investors have not shifted to long-term holdings, and the drag from leveraged ETFs remains. Garrett Jin set the first take-profit level at $1,150 (≈1.63 million won), with the next target at $1,300 (1.85 million won. Garrett Jin also noted that gold posted its strongest weekly gain since January this week, rising 7.8% to $4,388. The rally was driven by July’s non-farm payrolls falling by 23,000 and moderate CPI data, which pushed back bets on a September rate hike. However, gold is now overbought in the short term, so a pullback would present an opportunity to add positions in batches. Bitcoin failed to react to the same macro tailwinds, remaining trapped between the $62,500 support and $65,000-$70,000 resistance. A bottoming structure since the $57,700 level is gradually forming, and Garrett Jin will wait for a pullback to enter the next buying round. On SpaceX, Garrett Jin views its recent performance as a classic case of “bad news fully priced in + short squeeze”, with the lock-up period itself acting as a washout rather than a starting point for a decline. However, the lock-up window is not over: 319 million shares will unlock on August 20, and another ~700 million shares each in September and October. The current price up to $160 is a take-profit zone, not a zone for chasing highs.

2026.08.13 20:10

Michael Saylor proposes the "Currency Spectrum" framework for digital assets, categorizing them as: Bitcoin as digital capital, STRC as digital credit, and stablecoins as digital currency.

Strategy founder Michael Saylor has published an article systematically elaborating on the "currency spectrum" concept for digital assets, categorizing digital assets into four tiers: Bitcoin as digital capital, STRC as digital credit, SR-strcUSX as digital currency, and USDT as digital currency substitute. On this spectrum, moving from left to right, volatility and return potential gradually decline, while stability and transaction utility rise progressively. Saylor defines Bitcoin as the ultimate store of value: highly volatile, high-energy, and a sound bearer asset. USDT, meanwhile, is the ultimate medium of exchange—stable and easy to transact. Digital credit and digital currency serve as bridges between capital and currency. Saylor further detailed the attributes of each tier: STRC, as digital credit, is semi-stable, offers high fixed yields, and has store-of-value features. SR-strcUSX, as a digital currency, combines the technology of digital currency substitutes and the economic characteristics of digital capital, integrating stability, yield, transaction utility, and store-of-value functions. In terms of ownership structure, Bitcoin is a bearer asset, while digital credit, digital currency, and digital currency substitutes are created and managed by digital financial firms, with their ownership layer being digital equity. Together, they form a complete digital financial stack. This framework extends Saylor’s long-standing strategic vision of building a "Bitcoin + digital financial tools" ecosystem, integrating various securitized products issued by Strategy into a unified theoretical narrative.

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