Reuters Survey: Expectations of a December interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve remain solid, but debate persists over the end of its tightening cycle.
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A Reuters survey finds that roughly 55% of surveyed economists—56 out of 101 respondents—expect the December interest rate hike will signal the end of the current monetary tightening cycle, a share nearly unchanged from last month. Still, 45 economists project the Federal Reserve will raise rates at least two more times, including more than half of the surveyed primary dealers, in line with market pricing expectations. They add that risks to the inflation outlook have not shifted since the U.S. midterm elections, and political changes are unlikely to ease inflationary pressures quickly. While markets have pinned hopes on a resolution to the nearly 9-month Middle East conflict, which has pushed crude futures down more than 22% from their late-October peaks, inflationary pressures persist. A strong labor market, resilient economic growth, and inflation that has run above the Fed’s 2% target for nearly six years all point to the need for further monetary tightening. Tom Porcelli, chief economist at Wells Fargo, stated: "The Fed’s decisions hinge on upcoming inflation data, which will drive another rate hike. In fact, the Fed had more than enough reason to raise rates at its October meeting."
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