Analysis: On-chain data shows real Bitcoin (BTC) panic, with long-term holders "capitulating" while panic-driven sell-offs accelerate liquidation.

On-chain analyst Specter published a post stating that rumors of the Ethereum Foundation selling ETH have been swirling in the market recently, but the attribution of some related wallets lacks sufficient evidence. Taking a wallet marked as an address linked to the foundation as an example, Specter noted that while its early fund flows can be traced back to Ethereum Foundation-related addresses, it has gone through multiple transfers between independent entities in between. This wallet has participated in DeFi activities including BAT ICO, Compound, and Maker, with over 3,400 cumulative transactions, aligning more with the profile of an independent investor long involved in ICOs and DeFi. It cannot be deemed an Ethereum Foundation wallet solely based on early fund associations. Early ETH allocations may be payments to engineers or team members, or may involve private transactions or over-the-counter purchases by investors. The Ethereum Foundation disclosed in January 2016 that it conducted a private sale of ETH worth roughly $650,000 to individuals and enterprises, so the relevant funds may also stem from such transactions. Historical transaction links do not prove that two addresses are held or controlled by the same entity. Directly labeling all wallets that have had fund flows with foundation addresses as team wallets lacks sufficient basis, and could even spark unnecessary market panic. Reliable wallet attribution judgments should combine on-chain tracking with independent off-chain evidence.

Well-known HYPE token holder NMTD.HL posted that centralized exchanges (CEXs) may trade using users’ deposited assets, liquidate users’ positions, then replenish the relevant tokens back to original accounts or reserves to profit from the price difference. He also alleged that most tokens held on CEXs could face long-term price pressure, as users effectively surrender control over their asset prices to the platform and its management. NMTD.HL argues this practice has persisted for years, is steadily draining liquidity from the crypto sector, and casts doubt on whether some CEXs still have solvency issues. He urged users to self-custody their on-chain assets, transferring BTC, ETH and other crypto assets on-chain. The more users shift to on-chain trading and use decentralized platforms like Hyperliquid, the fewer opportunities CEXs have to manipulate prices with user assets, target user stop-losses and liquidate positions. Centralized platforms are opaque closed systems, and their profit models may involve trading against users via user deposits, profiting by triggering stop-losses and liquidations. For the crypto industry to achieve long-term growth, it must reduce reliance on CEXs, and Hyperliquid is the key platform driving this transition.

Serenity released a report noting that Jensen Huang’s management experience at Nvidia highlights a critical supply chain strategy: If a company can lock in supplies of key materials in advance at low cost, it can avoid competitors suffering tens of billions of dollars in losses from supply shortages, making advance capacity locking extremely strategically valuable. For context, SOI’s photonics business revenue is projected to hit roughly $400 million in fiscal 2028. This supply chain dynamic will push procurement demand for key bottleneck segments further upstream in 2027, a trend that will hold regardless of whether Huang remains at the helm. On specific investment fronts, Morgan Stanley’s focus areas—copper clad laminates (CCL), ABF substrates, printed circuit boards (PCB), and optical module components—are worth watching. However, the bank is more bullish on sub-components with lower cost shares and tighter supply constraints, as well as key links that can lock in capacity in advance at lower cost. Currently, deleveraging pressures and broad market pessimism are indiscriminately weighing on related industrial chain assets, making it hard for individual stocks to fully reflect their fundamentals for now. Serenity added that it needs to be more selective when picking 2027 investment targets, reflecting on its 2026 investment performance. Still, as new architectures like near-packet optics (NPO) and co-packaged optics (CPO) gradually roll out across the industry ecosystem, a host of outsize investment opportunities are expected to emerge in key supply chain bottleneck segments.

Per Lookonchain’s monitoring, rollover trader AguilaTrades has once again added 1,000 BTC to its long positions. It now holds 2,000 BTC in long positions with 40x leverage, with the position valued at roughly $131.13 million and an unrealized profit of approximately $3.87 million.

AguilaTrades(@AguilaTrades) just added another 1,000 $BTC to his long! He now holds a 40x long on 2,000 $BTC ($131.13M), with $3.87M in unrealized profit. Liquidation price: $62,140.49

Well-known trader "Aoying" stated in a post that today's crypto market plunge has no substantial negative catalysts, noting that Bitcoin's $62,000 price is the result of institutional investors incurring significant losses, advising market participants to hold onto this level.