Goldman Sachs revises its U.S. data center construction forecast upward amid headwinds, projecting that related spending will reach $125 billion by 2028.
17 minutes ago
Despite market panic triggered by stricter data center regulations after U.S. Democrats took control of Congress, Goldman Sachs has revised upward its forecast for U.S. data center construction spending, lifting the 2026 projection from $67 billion to $80 billion, the 2027 figure from $87 billion to $100 billion, and for the first time projecting 2028 spending will hit $125 billion. Goldman Sachs noted that around 86 GW of data center projects are already under construction in the U.S., with an additional roughly $900 billion in high-confidence planned projects, adding the sector’s overall construction cycle remains resilient. Demand and backlogs from hyperscale cloud providers including Microsoft, Amazon and Google have not shown significant cooling; H100 compute rental prices rose 26% year-over-year, while GB200 rental prices have climbed 50% year-to-date. Regarding the data center moratorium proposed by Texas Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa, Goldman Sachs believes its impact will mostly delay project deliveries rather than outright cancel construction plans, though it may lead to higher financing costs, reduced tax incentives and some client contract cancellations. Goldman Sachs also warned that a distinction should be made between the industry’s overall growth outlook and the viability of individual developers. Highly leveraged data center developers may face severe financial pressure due to project delays and rising financing costs, with some firms potentially unable to survive until their projects come online.
Jefferies warns that the AI capital expenditure cycle may be approaching an inflection point, with its contribution to U.S. GDP growth already standing at 67%.
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