Predict.fun: Probability of Democrats sweeping both chambers in U.S. midterm elections rises to 92%

Latest data shows roughly 10 Senate races have been called, with Democrats holding 43 seats and Republicans 32, marking a net gain of one seat for the Democratic Party. The gain comes from North Carolina, where former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper defeated his Republican opponent to flip the seat—previously held by Republicans—this is the first confirmed Senate flip of the current midterm elections. Many key swing states, including Ohio, Texas, South Carolina, and Michigan, are still counting votes. Democrats hold a narrow lead in early counts for some Republican-held seats, but those results have not yet been officially called. Democrats need a net gain of three more seats (a total of four gains) to retake the Senate majority. Since the vice president is a Republican, a 50-seat caucus would be enough to control the chamber. Results are still being updated.

Apple has submitted an annual filing to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), updating its insider trading policy and explicitly listing prediction market trading as a separate prohibited activity. The company requires employees to refrain from using confidential Apple information obtained through their work to place bets or conduct trades on prediction market platforms such as Polymarket; even if such conduct does not constitute insider trading or securities trading under applicable laws, it still violates the firm’s policy.

According to data from the BIT stock platform, the three major U.S. stock index futures continued to decline. The Nasdaq 100 futures fell more than 2%, the S&P 500 futures dropped 0.85%, and the Dow Jones futures fell 0.35%.

Latest data from prediction market platform Predict.fun shows the probability of the U.S. Democratic Party winning both the Senate and House of Representatives in the midterm elections has risen to 99%. The chance of the Republican Party retaining the Senate while Democrats take the House is 1%, the probability of Republicans holding both chambers is 0.1%, and the likelihood of Democrats winning the Senate while Republicans keep the House is 1%. As of 19:00 ET on November 3, U.S. midterm election voting is ongoing, while polling stations in Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia, and Indiana have all closed, with voting completed in those states. Additionally, voting in some U.S. House of Representatives districts in Florida has also concluded, with polls in the rest of the state set to close at 20:00 ET the same day. As polling stations across states close one after another, vote counting in the corresponding districts will gradually commence.

According to data from Bitget, the stock markets of Japan and South Korea have deepened their declines. South Korea’s KOSPI index fell by 2% intraday, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 index dropped by more than 3%.

Early Wednesday trading saw broad declines in Asian tech stocks. Preliminary results from the U.S. midterm elections show the Democrats leading, further cementing market bets on a full Democratic sweep. Investors fear this could slow the flow of artificial intelligence (AI) investments into tech-heavy Asian markets. Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone, stated: "Whether the Democrats win by a significant margin, or the Republicans unexpectedly take the Senate, could trigger large-scale market position adjustments." U.S. futures tied to the Nasdaq index fell further, dropping roughly 1.5% on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). South Korea’s KOSPI index rose at the open before pulling back, with weak chip stocks weighing on the broader market.