This Week's Macro Outlook: US Midterm Elections and Non-Farm Payrolls Take Center Stage, US Stock Markets to Feature Earnings Reports from Apple and AMD

The week of November 2 to 8 will bring a slew of major events to global markets. Key focus points include the U.S. midterm elections, Apple and AMD earnings reports, and October non-farm payroll data. Also worth monitoring are the Bank of England and Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decisions, Israel’s parliamentary election results, and progress in Russia-U.S.-Ukraine trilateral talks. In the tech sector, Apple and AMD will release their latest earnings, a critical test for AI trading confidence that has taken a hit recently. Apple is projected to post around $113 billion in revenue, marking its first earnings report under new CEO Tim Cook. AMD is expected to generate roughly $13 billion in revenue, with progress on its Helios racks and MI450 chips drawing close attention. Other companies reporting earnings include Qualcomm, Supermicro, Coherent, Lumentum, and Berkshire Hathaway. Separately, Marvell is reportedly in acquisition talks for Lumentum, with an announcement possibly coming as early as this week. Apple’s test of integrating Alibaba’s Qianwen AI into its smart products is scheduled to launch on November 4. Geopolitically, the November 3 U.S. midterm elections will see all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats up for election. The results will shape the Trump administration’s policy space for fiscal, tariff, and industrial policies over the next two years. Final results of Israel’s parliamentary election are due on November 4, while Russia-U.S.-Ukraine trilateral talks are set to resume in Abu Dhabi this week. On the macro front, the U.S. October non-farm payroll report will be released. September’s non-farm payrolls added just 29,000 jobs, and markets are forecasting 65,000 new jobs in October. A strong jobs report could further cement market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in December, and impact the trends of the U.S. dollar, U.S. Treasuries, and gold.