As the U.S. midterm elections enter the final sprint, markets are already re-pricing in anticipation of policies tied to the 2028 U.S. presidential election.

The U.S. midterm elections are entering their final stretch, with investors assessing the far-reaching impacts of a potential shift in control of Congress on financial markets, which could trigger an early repricing of policies ahead of the 2028 presidential election. If the Democrats hold both chambers of Congress, domestic legislation for the remaining two years of Trump’s second term is likely to face heightened gridlock. Key areas of partisan confrontation will include fiscal budgets, the government debt ceiling, and regulatory disputes over AI data center construction. Chris Grisanti, chief market strategist at MAI Capital Management, believes the Republicans still have a strong chance of retaining the Senate. Under this scenario, the stock market could see a brief relief rally, but the election’s impact is not expected to last long. Rami Sarafa, CEO of Cordoba Advisory Partners, argues that if the Democrats expand their influence in Congress, healthcare policies may face adjustments, and the expansion of AI data centers could encounter more resistance. However, given the long construction cycles of related projects, the AI investment boom will not be abruptly halted by the election results. Compared with short-term legislative gridlock, the 2028 presidential election may bring more widespread changes in policy expectations. JPMorgan’s Geopolitical Research Center lists three key post-midterm election themes to watch: domestic policy gridlock, Trump’s pursuit of leaving a political legacy, and the launch of the 2028 presidential campaign. Its analysis covers topics including Iran and the Middle East, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Latin America, and NATO. JPMorgan analysts note that the midterm elections will kick off discussions about the direction of U.S. policy in 2028 and beyond.