Goldman Sachs: AI trading’s influence has surpassed that of oil prices, driving divergence in global asset performance.

Goldman Sachs’ latest research shows that over the past three weeks, semiconductor stock exposure explains around 54% of the performance divergence across different asset classes, while oil price exposure accounts for just 2%. As the influence of AI-related trading continues to grow, tech stocks have become a key driver of global market risk appetite and asset performance divergence. Goldman Sachs notes that investor risk appetite has recently been highly correlated with the relative performance of large-cap tech stocks. Last week, mounting concerns over AI investment returns, financing costs, and capital expenditures led to sell-offs in tech stocks and corporate bonds, pushing Goldman Sachs’ risk appetite indicator to its lowest level since April 2025. South Korea’s stock market serves as a prime example of AI trading’s market impact. Given semiconductor stocks’ heavy weighting in the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI), shifts in global AI investment expectations directly influence local market performance. On Tuesday, the KOSPI closed up 3.1%, with SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics rising 5.2% and 4.2% respectively. However, Goldman Sachs emphasizes that the 54% and 2% figures reflect a statistical relationship within a specific time frame, and do not mean AI factors will drive global market movements in the long term. While the semiconductor sector’s influence has outpaced oil prices recently, the impact of high oil prices on inflation, monetary policy, and asset pricing remains significant. As large tech firms including Microsoft, Google, and Amazon prepare to release their earnings reports, the market will focus on whether AI demand can sustain growth and whether massive capital expenditures will translate into actual profits.