Trillion-dollar AI investment has propped up the U.S. economy, but the productivity miracle has yet to materialize.

AI infrastructure investment is emerging as a key pillar of U.S. economic growth, though it has yet to deliver a noticeable long-term productivity surge. Economists project that the U.S. real GDP annualized growth rate for the third quarter will come in at around 3%, driven primarily by consumer spending and AI-related business investment, with corporate capital expenditure on data center construction and computing equipment purchases continuing to expand. However, this investment growth does not mean AI has significantly lifted overall economic efficiency. Currently, the U.S. potential economic growth rate remains stuck at roughly 2%, and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) forecasts a long-term potential growth rate of approximately 1.8%. Economists note that recent improvements in labor productivity cannot yet be confirmed as AI-driven, and more data is needed to validate related gains. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy still faces inflationary pressures. S&P Global data shows that the U.S. October flash Composite PMI fell to 57.6 from September’s 58.4, but the Output Prices Index rose to 59.8, its highest level since August 2022, signaling that corporate cost pressures continue to intensify. Whether AI investment can eventually translate into sustained productivity gains remains a key factor for the U.S. economy to break through its long-term growth bottleneck. At this stage, trillions of dollars in investment plans are insufficient to prove that the U.S. has entered a new phase of sustained economic growth acceleration.