Huobi HTX Chief Analyst Cloud: Bitcoin is likely to remain range-bound ahead of the interest rate decision, with the $80,000 lower edge expected to be tested first.

Bitcoin has been stuck in a range of $80,000 to $84,000 over the past two weeks. Huobi HTX’s chief analyst Cloud attributes this to two offsetting forces: ETFs have posted net outflows for two consecutive weeks, while exchange holdings continue to flow out, and long-term holders are only taking mild profits. In the week ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, Bitcoin is likely to remain range-bound. The CME currently prices a 16% chance of an October rate hike, while economists widely peg the odds at nearly 50/50. This gap between market pricing and consensus will deter capital from betting early. If Bitcoin breaks out of the range prematurely, the likelihood of a downward test is slightly higher: funding rates remain elevated, and option skew continues to lean toward puts, indicating longs have not yet been cleared out and demand for downside protection is rising. However, the $80,000 level has acted as strong support multiple times over the past month, so a downward breakout is more likely to be a false move. Confirmation signals for a breakout fall into two categories: For an upward move, Bitcoin needs to close above $84,200 on a daily basis, ETFs must see net inflows exceeding $500 million over three consecutive days, and funding rates should not exceed 15%. For a downward move, it needs to break below $79,800, ETF outflows exceed $500 million in a single week, and exchange flows turn positive. The real catalyst for Bitcoin’s next direction remains the interest rate decision to be released in the early hours of October 29 (Beijing time) and the nearly 89% pricing of a December rate hike. Note: This article does not constitute investment advice, nor does it constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation for any investment product.