Analysis: Bitcoin's recovery faces a test as trading platform reserves rebound and spot demand turns negative again.

CryptoQuant certified analyst XWIN Japan stated in a post that the latest on-chain data shows Bitcoin still exhibits signs of bottoming, though its recovery is uneven. Exchange reserves have rebounded, spot demand has turned negative again, and holding behaviors of whales of different sizes have diverged. 1. Exchange reserves rebound: In early October, Bitcoin exchange reserves stood at around 2.67 million coins, and have now risen to approximately 2.68 million. While still lower than the level in January, the rise in reserves does not necessarily mean increased selling pressure; it may also be related to changes in custody methods. 2. Spot demand recovery blocked: The 30-day spot demand indicator once approached zero, then turned negative again. Perpetual contract demand remains positive, providing support for total demand. This indicator differs from the previously discussed apparent demand indicator, and their values cannot be directly compared. 3. Divergence in holdings among different-sized whales: The group holding 100 to 1,000 BTC has remained net buyers over the past 60 days, but the buying intensity is lower than the peak in late September. The net decline in holdings of the group holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC has narrowed to nearly zero, while the group holding more than 10,000 BTC is still in a net selling state, indicating that buying has not yet spread widely. The above rolling data includes activities before October and may also be affected by address transfers between groups of different holding sizes. XWIN Japan believes that low exchange reserves and continued net buying by some whales still support Bitcoin's bottoming. However, for a sustainable recovery, spot demand needs to stay positive, buying needs to absorb BTC flowing back into exchanges, and buying behavior needs to expand to more holding groups. Additionally, market expectations from the U.S. midterm elections and monetary policy also need to translate into actual buying.