Analysis: Gold and Silver Undergo Sharp Corrections, Supply-Demand Imbalance Still Supports Precious Metals' Prospects
51 minutes ago
Spot gold prices, after hitting a record high of $5,608 per ounce in January this year, have fallen roughly 27% to around $4,112. Silver has also dropped more than 50% from its January peak of $121.62 to roughly $56. However, the sharp price declines have not eased supply pressures in the physical market. Data from the World Gold Council shows that global central banks purchased 288.9 tons of gold in the second quarter of 2026, marking a new all-time high for the period and a 62% year-on-year increase. Meanwhile, the Silver Institute projects that the global silver market supply deficit will widen to 46.3 million ounces in 2026, marking the sixth consecutive year of supply shortfalls, with relatively limited growth in mine supply. Demand structures are also shifting. While silver consumption in the photovoltaic sector is expected to continue declining, demand growth from areas such as data centers, electric vehicles, and grid upgrades may partially offset the impact of lower PV silver use. At the same time, mine development has long lead times, making new supply slow to respond to demand shifts. This round of gold and silver price pullbacks likely reflects more the liquidation of speculative positions rather than a complete resolution of physical supply-demand imbalances. The U.S. fiscal deficit, rising interest expenses, and central banks' need to diversify reserves are also likely to continue providing long-term support for gold. However, shifts in trade policies, weakening industrial demand, and the release of new mining capacity could still alter market trends.
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