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Ahead of the CPI release, the probability that the U.S. Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady in October stands at 78.4%.

41 minutes ago

According to CME Group’s FedWatch data, ahead of today’s release of U.S. September CPI figures, the probability that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady in October stands at 78.4%, while the chance of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 21.6%. For December, the likelihood of the Fed keeping rates unchanged is 12%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point hike is 69.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point hike is 18.3%.

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Analysis: September interest rate hike is not a 'one-off action', the Federal Reserve will further tighten macroeconomic policy

Macroeconomist Chris Anstey said Federal Reserve policymakers’ latest communications indicate they have not laid the groundwork for a consecutive interest rate hike in October. Today’s stronger-than-expected core CPI reading may not be enough to alter that stance, but it will reinforce expectations of further policy tightening by the Fed. The September rate hike was almost certainly not a one-off action. Headline CPI rose 3.7% year-over-year, the largest increase since May. This growth also significantly outpaces wage gains, meaning workers’ real incomes are unfortunately shrinking. Average hourly earnings fell 0.7% year-over-year in September. For the U.S. government, this is an unfavorable data point ahead of the midterm elections.

7 minutes ago

Bank of America projects that the Federal Reserve will implement three interest rate hikes by June 2027.

Bank of America forecasts that the Federal Reserve will implement three interest rate hikes by June 2027.

7 minutes ago

Key trading data: The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surged by 10 basis points to 5.31%, with the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield rising in tandem.

According to market data from BIT (bit.com), the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose 10 basis points intraday to 5.31%. The latest yield on the U.S. 2-year Treasury note climbed 12.72 basis points to 4.92%. The sharp rise in U.S. Treasury yields signals that the market expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates higher for longer, or that inflationary pressures have not yet fully abated, leading to a drop in bond prices. This will push up costs for mortgages, corporate loans and government debt issuance, while weighing on the stock market—especially growth stocks—and may also strengthen the U.S. dollar.

7 minutes ago

After the CPI release, the probability of the Federal Reserve (Fed) raising interest rates in October has risen to 43.7%.

Following the release of the U.S. September CPI data, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool: The probability that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady in October is 56.3%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 43.7%. For December, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged is 4.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point hike is 55.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point hike is 40.4%.

7 minutes ago

Bitcoin drops below $83,000.

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has fallen below $83,000, with a 0.6% decline in the past 24 hours.

7 minutes ago

After the release of September's CPI data, the three major U.S. stock index futures plunged and turned negative, Bitcoin fell below $83,000, and spot gold and silver declined.

According to market data from BIT (bit.com), after the release of September CPI figures, the three major US stock index futures plunged and turned negative: Nasdaq futures fell 0.5%. Spot gold dropped nearly 1%, while spot silver fell nearly 2%. Bitcoin declined to break below $83,000.

7 minutes ago

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