U.S. overall inflation in September likely to see its largest increase in five months, putting October's interest rate hike expectations to the test.
57 minutes ago
Latest market projections show U.S. September headline CPI is expected to rise 0.6% month-over-month, up from August’s 0.4% and potentially marking its largest monthly gain in five months. The year-over-year CPI increase is forecast to climb from 3.4% to 3.6%. Driven by Middle East tensions and oil prices, rising energy costs are likely the main catalyst for accelerating inflation. For core CPI, markets expect a 0.2% month-over-month rise and 2.5% year-over-year gain, with the monthly pace slowing from the prior period. Goldman Sachs projects September energy prices to rise around 5% month-over-month, while housing inflation continues to cool. The divergence between headline and core inflation trends may complicate the Federal Reserve’s policy judgments. Fed officials remain divided on their next policy move. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester believes inflationary pressures are spreading to more sectors and is open to a rate hike at the end of October; Governor Christopher Waller, however, has said there is no need for consecutive rate hikes at two back-to-back meetings. Markets will closely watch whether this data will shift expectations for the interest rate path in October and December. U.S. September CPI will be released at 20:30 tonight, September PPI will be released on Thursday, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak on Friday. If CPI comes in higher than expected, it may reinforce expectations of further policy tightening; if core inflation slows, it may support the Fed pausing rate hikes.
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