Analysis: Bitcoin’s current cycle bottom has formed, with short-term holder supply showing overheating signals again.

According to monitoring by AI Aunt, a crypto whale address swapped its UBTC holdings for 16,704.47 ETH over the past 22 hours, worth approximately $42.46 million, at an average purchase price of around $2,541.89.

According to BIT (Bit.com) market data, Microsoft’s stock price hit a near one-year high, rising 0.8% intraday. On the news front, Microsoft plans to gradually increase the use of its self-developed AI chips in data centers to reduce reliance on NVIDIA GPUs. Microsoft stated that it will mainly rely on its self-developed Maia chip architecture to handle AI model requests in the future, and plans to deploy several gigawatts of computing power on the Maia series chips. Microsoft unveiled its third-generation AI accelerator chip, the Maia 300, on Monday, which is expected to enter production in 2027. Each data center rack can hold 96 Maia 300 chips, double the number of the previous-generation Maia 200; compared with GPUs, its AI token processing capacity per rack can reach up to 7 times higher, and the number of tokens processed per megawatt increases by approximately 40%. Microsoft said the Maia 300 is expected to boost AI service performance and lower data center operating costs. Evercore ISI analysts forecast that by the first quarter of 2027, Maia chips will account for around 10% of Microsoft’s AI chip spending.

According to HTX market data, Gitcoin (GTC) has surged an additional 57% in the past 24 hours, currently trading at $0.2871, with its market capitalization climbing to $28.9 million. The token has rallied 136% over the past seven days and 272% over the past 30 days. Upbit officially announced today that it has listed Gitcoin (GTC), supporting trading pairs for the South Korean won (KRW) and Tether (USDT).

Goldman Sachs has upgraded its global stock rating from "neutral" to "overweight" for the next three months, while retaining its bullish stance over the coming 12 months. The bank noted that sustained corporate earnings growth, stock valuations pulling back from summer highs, and reduced investor positioning have improved stocks’ risk-reward ratio. FactSet data shows the S&P 500’s 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio has fallen from 21.1x in early June to 19.1x, compared to roughly 22x at the start of the year. Goldman Sachs projects S&P 500 constituents will post 27% year-over-year earnings growth in the third quarter, marking the third consecutive quarter of earnings gains exceeding 25%, with AI infrastructure investment remaining a key driver. On regional allocation, the bank maintained "overweight" ratings for U.S. and Asian stocks, and an "underweight" rating for European equities. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs upgraded its 12-month government bond rating to "overweight", recommending a "barbell strategy": allocate to tech stocks on one end, and stocks with bond-like characteristics on the other, while favoring shorter-duration bonds and cash assets. The bank also warned that rising U.S. Treasury yields, higher energy prices, and uncertainty around the U.S. midterm elections could still exacerbate market volatility. Its bullish outlook remains contingent on sustained delivery of corporate earnings and no further deterioration in financial conditions.

Oct 12 Update: #Bitcoin ETFs: 1D NetFlow: +127 $BTC(+$10.49M)?? 7D NetFlow: -8,538 $BTC(-$704.12M)?? #Ethereum ETFs: 1D NetFlow: -25,446 $ETH(-$64.22M)?? 7D NetFlow: -208,593 $ETH(-$526.4M)??

Bitfinex Alpha released a report stating that Bitcoin’s price movement this week will be influenced by Wednesday’s U.S. CPI data release and the strength of spot buying. The report predicts that before the CPI announcement, BTC will likely trade in a range of $81,300 to $84,500. It notes that BTC has fallen 7.9% from its October 2 high of $87,197, hitting a low of $80,347 on October 8 before reclaiming the previous range high of $81,300. During the same period, around $1.18 billion in crypto positions were liquidated, and open interest has not yet recovered significantly, meaning the next market move will rely more on spot market demand, which remains the weakest link in the market. The overall cost basis for Bitcoin ETF investors is approximately $84,340, slightly above the current price, so some investors may sell near their cost basis if the price rebounds. On the macro front, the U.S. core PCE inflation rate stands at 3%, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury real yield is 2.91%. The report argues that if core CPI’s month-over-month increase does not exceed 0.2%, interest rate expectations may be lowered, providing upward momentum for BTC; if it hits 0.3% or higher, spot buying will face greater pressure. The report adds that if BTC successfully breaks above $84,500 supported by ETF inflows, its next target could be the year-to-date opening price of $87,722; if it consistently falls below $81,300 and ETF outflows resume, attention should be paid to the real market average of around $77,400.