Bitcoin's annualized volatility has fallen to 46%, but the number of extreme market moves this year has already exceeded that recorded during the 2018 bear market.
2026.10.10 13:51:05
As of 2026, Bitcoin has seen 10 trading days with 3-standard-deviation price moves, exceeding the full-year total of 8 such days during the 2018 bear market. While Bitcoin’s annualized volatility has dropped from 84% in 2018 to around 46%, extreme price swings remain frequent relative to its recent volatility levels. A 3-standard-deviation move measures how much a price deviates from its typical recent volatility range. Data shows that the average daily price swing for Bitcoin during these extreme moves this year is roughly 7%, down from about 10% in 2018. Since 2024, Bitcoin’s volatility has stood at approximately 47%, similar to Nvidia’s. Yet over the same period, Bitcoin has recorded 26 trading days with 3-standard-deviation moves—far outpacing Nvidia’s 8, the S&P 500’s 16, and gold’s 12. Market analysts note that macroeconomic shocks, leverage in derivatives markets, and concentrated positions are key drivers of the persistent extreme volatility. When investors heavily sell options betting on market calm, sudden news can trigger mass liquidations of those positions, further amplifying price swings. Deribit CEO Luuk Strijers stated that traditional Value-at-Risk (VaR) models fail to adequately measure tail risks during extreme market conditions, advising investors to focus more on risk metrics like Expected Shortfall. Meanwhile, increased institutional participation, deeper liquidity, and improved risk management have enhanced the market’s ability to absorb shocks, though this does not mean extreme volatility will disappear.
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