Kalshi Study: 82% of High-Profit Traders Have No Wall Street Work Experience, 91% Are Not Full-Time Traders

A study released by prediction market platform Kalshi reveals that its high-profit traders are not generally from traditional finance, and trading performance may be more closely tied to probabilistic reasoning ability. The research surveyed high-earning accounts across Kalshi’s markets (excluding sports and special categories) as of September 2026: questionnaires were sent to 2,360 accounts, with 325 valid responses received, marking a 13.8% response rate. Findings show 82% of high-profit traders have never worked full-time at an investment bank, hedge fund, private equity firm, or proprietary trading firm; 79% attended public high schools, 65% said they learned about markets and probability primarily through self-study, 91% are not full-time traders, and 42% have at least six months of customer service or retail work experience. On cognitive ability tests, surveyed traders posted an average score of 2.42 on the Berlin Numeracy Test (out of a maximum 4 points), compared to an average of 0.62 for the general U.S. adult population. 93% of traders resisted the gambler’s fallacy, versus 57% of the general public. The study concludes that trading advantages in prediction markets likely derive more from probabilistic reasoning, information research, and the ability to distinguish between predictable and unpredictable events, rather than traditional finance professional backgrounds. Furthermore, Kalshi’s analysis of traders’ residential locations shows only 6.3% live in ZIP codes with a median household income exceeding $150,000, meaning the overall user base’s income distribution is more aligned with U.S. middle-income groups.