The Trump administration has shifted to a long-term economic war against Iran, dashing expectations of a quick victory, as the oil blockade has not yet completely cut off Tehran's revenue.

According to a report by The Washington Post, the Trump administration is reassessing its timeline for economic pressure on Iran. Since intensified sanctions and port blockades have yet to force Tehran to accept U.S. negotiation terms, Washington is increasingly accepting that the campaign could last for months or even longer, shifting from pursuing short-term results to long-term attrition in its so-called "economic exile campaign" against Iran. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent had earlier predicted that Iran Air would be forced to cease international operations by the end of September, a goal that has not been achieved. Although the U.S. blockade has drastically cut Iran’s new crude oil exports, Iran is still selling off previously shipped crude oil inventories. Reuters cited relevant data stating that around 20 million barrels of Iranian crude oil remain outside the blockaded areas; data from Kpler shows that Iran can still export around 250,000 barrels of oil per day overland to foreign markets. In the next phase, the U.S. will continue targeting Iran’s banks, airlines, oil tankers and intermediary networks, and put pressure on foreign financial institutions, warning that transactions with Iran could face secondary sanctions. The U.S. is also trying to restrict Iran’s use of shadow fleets, ship-to-ship transfers and third-country trade to evade sanctions. However, economic pressure has not yet translated into Iranian concessions on core issues such as its nuclear program. Tehran still demands that the U.S. lift port blockades, ease oil sanctions and unfreeze frozen assets. The U.S. government’s current assessment is that as long as it continues to squeeze Iran’s oil revenues and international financial channels, time will gradually work in the U.S.’s favor, but a long-term blockade also entails higher military investment, shipping risks and energy market costs.