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Federal Reserve minutes signal a hawkish stance: Most officials expect another interest rate hike this year, but there is no clear urgency for a move in October.

2026.10.08 07:49:27

The minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s September meeting reveal that the Fed’s policy-making committee has adopted a broadly hawkish unified stance on interest rate hikes, though members hold differing views on the justifications for supporting such moves. The minutes note: "Most participants judged that it may be appropriate to raise the federal funds rate target range further before the end of this year." However, participants also stressed that they remain open to each meeting’s policy decisions, which will depend on the latest economic data available at the time. Nick Timiraos, a journalist widely known as the "New Fed Correspondent", highlighted the minutes’ key takeaway: "On the monetary policy outlook following the current meeting, most participants believe another 25 basis point hike to the federal funds rate target range before the end of this year may be appropriate." As of press time, CME Group data shows investors are pricing in less than a 20% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at the Fed’s October 27-28 meeting, a sharp decline from roughly 70% in the days after the September policy resolution. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), set to be released on October 14, is likely to be a critical factor shaping this market expectation.

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