New York Fed: U.S. one-year inflation expectations rise to 3.9%, hitting a new high in over three years.
2026.10.07 23:26:34
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Wednesday survey shows that U.S. consumers’ one-year ahead inflation expectations rose sharply in September, hitting their highest level in over three years, while households’ views on both current and future financial conditions deteriorated. Respondents projected a 3.9% inflation rate one year from now, up from 3.6% in August, marking the highest reading since May 2023. Three-year inflation expectations climbed from 3.2% to 3.3%, while five-year inflation expectations held steady at 3%. The NY Fed survey also noted that in September, households downgraded their assessments of current and future financial situations and perceived that accessing credit had become more difficult. However, households’ concerns about failing to repay debts on time actually eased. Labor market expectations saw some improvement: compared with August, respondents viewed the probability of a one-year ahead unemployment rate rise as lower, their worries about involuntary unemployment over the next year weakened, and their confidence in securing a new job if they lost their current role increased.
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