Analysis: Federal Reserve meeting minutes to reveal whether September interest rate hike is a "credibility hike" or the start of a new cycle

Beating AI News Flash: OpenAI’s 28-day product sprint has reached Day 24. Today, the company added SMS functionality to its "dot" tool. Users can assign tasks to dot via iPhone’s iMessage or Android’s Google Messages app, just like messaging friends, with support for text, photos, and voice notes. Dot can also proactively send updates on task progress. The feature is currently being rolled out for testing exclusively to ChatGPT Pro users in the U.S.

According to Lookonchain’s monitoring, over the past five days, a whale has transferred 152,000 AAVE tokens (valued at approximately $21.3 million) and 45.17 million WLD tokens (valued at around $21.4 million) to multiple trading platforms.

Early morning, October 29 (Beijing Time), the U.S. Federal Reserve announced it would hold the federal funds rate steady in the 3.75% to 4.00% range, in line with market expectations. The decision passed with a 10-2 vote, with Board member Cook and Cleveland Fed President Hammack dissenting, advocating for a 25 basis point rate hike. The statement noted the economy is expanding strongly while inflation remains elevated. Following the announcement, U.S. stocks gave back minor gains, while U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. Dollar Index rose modestly. In response, Cloud, chief analyst at Huobi HTX, said the two dissenting votes signal a clear hawkish stance within the committee. Powell did not provide forward guidance, only emphasizing the need to bring inflation back to the 2% target in a timely manner, effectively leaving the suspense of a rate hike intact for December. September CPI hit a five-month high, with about 76% of surveyed institutions expecting another rate hike in December. This pause does not mean a dovish shift, and U.S. dollar liquidity constraints remain tight. For crypto assets, every rally in short-term rates and the U.S. dollar will first weigh on altcoins before testing Bitcoin’s resilience. Ahead of the midterm elections and the end of earnings season, the market remains in a high-volatility window. Note: This article does not constitute investment advice, nor does it serve as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation for any investment product.

Beating AI News Flash: OpenAI announced it will offer API credits to eligible ChatGPT Pro and Business users. For Pro users, the three monthly tiers of $100, $200, and $500 will each receive an equivalent amount in API credits. For Business users, credits are calculated per paid seat: $20 per Standard seat, $100 per Premium seat, with a maximum of $500 per workspace per month. This benefit is not new to OpenAI; Anthropic launched a similar policy for Claude Max and Team users as early as October 7. Max 5x and 20x users can receive $100 and $200 monthly respectively, while Team users also get credits per seat, with a maximum of $500. To claim the credits, users must have an active paid subscription for at least 7 days and link their account to their API organization. Initial credits are prorated based on the remaining time in the current billing cycle, and subsequent credits are automatically issued upon subscription renewal. Unused credits expire at the end of the cycle and cannot be rolled over. The granted API credits can be used to call OpenAI’s text, image, speech, and other models, but cannot be used to pay for Codex usage fees—even when logging into Codex with an API Key.

This AAVE & WLD whale keeps dumping! Over the past 5 days, the whale has deposited 152,000 $AAVE ($21.3M) and 45.17M $WLD ($21.4M) into multiple exchanges.

Insight Beating AI Flash News: AI coding firm Cognition has received a new round of financing offers, with investors valuing it at $70 billion to $80 billion, even exceeding the $60 billion implied equity valuation when SpaceX acquired Cursor. On September 8, Cognition just raised over $2 billion at a $48 billion valuation. In just seven weeks, the highest offer has increased by 67%. The company is considering another financing round before the end of the year, but nothing has been finalized yet. Cognition’s core product Devin has evolved from assisting in code writing to independently executing software engineering tasks. After acquiring Windsurf last year, it added an AI code editor and enterprise sales channels. At the time of acquisition, Windsurf already had over 350 enterprise clients. Cognition’s annualized revenue grew from $492 million in May this year to over $1 billion in September, with clients including NVIDIA, Citigroup, and Mercedes-Benz. However, compared to Cursor, its valuation is still higher. Cursor’s annualized revenue reached around $4 billion in June, nearly four times that of Cognition, yet Cognition’s current offer is higher. Based on a rough calculation of $1 billion annualized revenue, its valuation equals 70 to 80 times revenue. Moreover, after SpaceX acquired Cursor, it can use SpaceX’s GPU cluster; Cognition, by contrast, spends hundreds of millions of dollars annually renting NVIDIA servers and training its own programming models on open-source models, with cash burn possibly reaching $800 million this year. Insiders said that excluding investment in self-developed models, Cognition’s free cash flow is nearly breaking even, and this investment is precisely its way to reduce reliance on OpenAI and Anthropic models.