Bank of America: Bonds are truly attractive for the first time in decades; U.S. stocks may deliver lower returns than U.S. bonds over the next decade.
2026.10.07 18:02:34
Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. Equity and Quantitative Strategy at Bank of America, said bonds have become a truly competitive alternative asset to the stock market for the first time in decades. She also warned that current investor sentiment is elevated, making the stock market more vulnerable to negative surprises and leaving relatively limited room for further upside beyond expectations. Subramanian noted that the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note has now topped 5%, while Bank of America’s own valuation models project the S&P 500’s annualized return over the next 10 years may not hit that level. She pointed out that U.S. policymakers are working to prevent long-term interest rates from rising too high, with both the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury Secretary closely monitoring developments at the long end of the yield curve. Meanwhile, demographic shifts mean the ceiling for U.S. interest rates may be lower than it was in the 1970s and 1980s. In addition, artificial intelligence is likely to bring certain deflationary effects in the future, which could ease long-term inflation and interest rate pressures. Against this backdrop, Subramanian believes the environment for allocating to bonds is becoming more favorable, as U.S. Treasury yields are unlikely to sustainably rise above 6% to 7%.
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