Ethereum falls below $2,600

Crypto analyst Ted posted that as a large number of "junk L2s" gradually exit the market, and projects like Abstract and Blast announce shutdowns, his outlook on Ethereum has grown more optimistic. Ted notes the trend’s lesson is straightforward: projects should build directly on the Ethereum mainnet, rather than constantly creating redundant chains designed to extract value from their own communities. He stated: "Stop creating unnecessary chains."

According to market data from BIT (bit.com), US crypto-related stocks declined across the board in pre-market trading, with MSTR down 3.20%, CRCL down 2.27%, COIN down 2.07%, HOOD down 1.88%, BMNR down 4.35%, SBET down 3.79%, and PURR down 2.72%.

Tom Lee, chairman of Ethereum treasury firm BitMine, said that despite recent cautious market sentiment, the S&P 500’s fundamentals are improving, and the index’s valuations have actually declined. Fundstrat projects that S&P 500 constituents’ third-quarter earnings growth could reach nearly 30%, and its 2027 earnings per share (EPS) forecast has been revised up by more than 20% since the start of the year. Tom Lee noted that the S&P 500’s price gains have lagged the upward revision to earnings expectations, meaning the market’s valuation multiple is actually declining. He also argued that high oil prices could strengthen the U.S. economy via American energy exports, while the outperformance of tech stocks and crypto markets signals that the market is betting on future inflation cooling.

US President Trump signed an executive order on Monday, temporarily allowing tax-exempt "red-dyed diesel"—originally intended for non-road uses like agriculture and mining—to enter the highway transport market, aiming to ease logistics cost pressures by cutting fuel tax burdens on trucking. Regular on-road diesel in the US currently incurs a federal excise tax of 24.3 cents per gallon, while red-dyed diesel is generally tax-exempt. Theoretically, if the policy is smoothly passed to end users, diesel costs could drop by up to around 24.4 cents per gallon. However, the measure does not increase diesel production; it only changes the fuel's tax and usage rules. The US diesel supply still faces multiple pressures. High refinery utilization rates in the US, Russia's restrictions on refined product exports, and disruptions to refined product supplies in the Middle East have kept diesel prices at elevated levels. Data from the American Automobile Association (AAA) shows that the national average retail price of on-road diesel hit a record high of $6.528 per gallon on September 22, and stood at around $6.315 per gallon on Tuesday. Meanwhile, red-dyed diesel is primarily supplied through dedicated agricultural, mining, and industrial channels, and highway truck stops generally lack the necessary storage and refueling facilities. Industry groups also warn that if large numbers of trucks switch to rural channels to source red-dyed diesel, it could squeeze fuel supplies for agricultural machinery during North America's fall harvest peak. Energy analysts note that expanding the use of tax-exempt diesel cannot alter diesel wholesale prices or refinery capacity, and can only reduce tax burdens for some end users at most; the real bottleneck in the US diesel market remains insufficient supply.

The cryptocurrency market saw a pullback today. The BTC CVD indicator shows that purple whales previously drove BTC’s price lower through sustained selling, and are now replenishing their previously reduced BTC holdings at low levels; red whales have also been buying continuously following the price decline. These mid-to-large whales likely served as the main driving force behind the recent drop, but have shifted to buying after prices pulled back. Meanwhile, retail investors remain in a consistent selling trend.

Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. Equity and Quantitative Strategy at Bank of America, said bonds have become a truly competitive alternative asset to the stock market for the first time in decades. She also warned that current investor sentiment is elevated, making the stock market more vulnerable to negative surprises and leaving relatively limited room for further upside beyond expectations. Subramanian noted that the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note has now topped 5%, while Bank of America’s own valuation models project the S&P 500’s annualized return over the next 10 years may not hit that level. She pointed out that U.S. policymakers are working to prevent long-term interest rates from rising too high, with both the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury Secretary closely monitoring developments at the long end of the yield curve. Meanwhile, demographic shifts mean the ceiling for U.S. interest rates may be lower than it was in the 1970s and 1980s. In addition, artificial intelligence is likely to bring certain deflationary effects in the future, which could ease long-term inflation and interest rate pressures. Against this backdrop, Subramanian believes the environment for allocating to bonds is becoming more favorable, as U.S. Treasury yields are unlikely to sustainably rise above 6% to 7%.