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Tom Lee: Future inflation data is expected to cool, with the crypto bull market and stock market’s new highs already pricing in upcoming loose financial conditions.

2026.10.05 19:37:09

Tom Lee told CNBC in an interview: "I think ahead of last week's jobs report, the market was pricing in the 'most hawkish Fed' scenario, expecting three interest rate hikes, including a 75% probability of a rate hike in October. But ultimately, the jobs report came in weaker. We will get the September inflation report in two weeks. In our view, we believe some one-off factors are fading, so I think inflation data will be soft over the next six months. This will not only allow the Fed to backtrack from its hawkish stance, but also push bond yields to truly normalize as inflation uncertainty begins to ease. Moreover, I see many signs: tech stocks hitting new highs and cryptocurrencies performing so well—this is impossible under tight monetary conditions. So I think they are pricing in looser financial conditions ahead of time."

Relevant content

Summary of Walsh's Press Conference: The decision to hold off on interest rate hikes was not politically influenced, and schedule reforms will be implemented next autumn.

Fed Governor Waller has concluded the press conference following the October FOMC meeting. BlockBeats summarizes the key takeaways as follows: Waller first affirmed the U.S. economy, stating that U.S. economic activity is expanding strongly, domestic consumption has remained resilient, productivity is robust, and capital investment is strong. However, he warned that inflation remains elevated. The Federal Reserve believes additional information will help the FOMC assess its policy stance, and the committee will achieve price stability. Economic growth is robust. Waller also added that credit conditions have tightened somewhat since the Fed’s last rate hike, but immediately clarified: “I neither want to nor can describe it as ‘tightening.’” When asked whether midterm elections would influence interest rate decisions, Waller said “politics has played no role at all.” On issues including AI and oil prices, Waller pointed out that interest rates have fallen amid rising oil prices, expressed skepticism about the view that “rate hikes will not impact AI,” and noted that interest rates have affected the tech sector. Waller also announced adjustments to the FOMC meeting schedule starting next fall: the committee will hold 8 meetings annually. In 2027, the Fed will still hold 8 meetings as scheduled, but one will not vote on monetary policy interest rates, focusing solely on policy strategy. In 2028, two of the 8 meetings will be dedicated to policy strategy, with no votes on policy interest rates, and these will not be formal policy decision-making sessions.

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Walsh: Politics played no role in interest rate decisions.

When asked whether the midterm elections would affect interest rate decisions, Federal Reserve Chair Walsh said politics played no part in the decision-making.

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PRIORS and AI have been added to Robinhood’s asset display page.

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Wash voiced skepticism about the claim that interest rate hikes will not impact AI, and has observed that interest rates are affecting the tech sector.

Fed Chair Walsh: As oil prices continue to climb, interest rates have retreated. He expressed skepticism toward the view that interest rate hikes will not impact AI, noting that whether you interpret it as AI or SI is up to you, and added that he has observed interest rates affecting the tech sector.

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Waller: Decided to adjust his schedule next autumn, and will not hold interest rate votes at two meetings starting in 2028.

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