Analysis: 30-year US Treasury yields hit their highest level since 2002, Bitcoin faces dual signals

The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury note has risen to its highest level since 2002, driven by record fiscal deficit spending and persistent inflation. U.S. CPI has exceeded the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target for 60 consecutive months, the longest stretch since the 1980s. Wealth concentration in the U.S. remains extreme: the net worth of the top 1% of U.S. households totals roughly $60.3 trillion, 14.3 times that of the bottom 50% of households. The purchasing power of the U.S. dollar has fallen by 23% since 2020. The 24-year high in the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield puts direct pressure on Bitcoin, as higher discount rates tend to compress valuations of non-yield-bearing assets. On the flip side, persistent inflation and the dollar’s declining purchasing power could reinforce Bitcoin’s narrative as a hard asset and inflation hedge. The market is currently grappling with two conflicting signals; in the short term, the key question is whether support for BTC from inflation and a weaker dollar, or pressure on risk assets from rising long-dated U.S. Treasury yields, will prevail.