Kalshi executives respond to volume manipulation allegations: Need to distinguish between prediction markets and perpetual contracts

Insight Beating AI Flash News: China is tightening IPOs for humanoid robot companies. Reuters, citing multiple sources familiar with the matter, reports that regulators have used informal "window guidance" to slow the listing process of some firms and raise review thresholds. Some sources say relevant IPOs have effectively been suspended, while others stress this is not an official ban, only a tightening of oversight for the sector. The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) did not respond to a request for comment. Regulators are zeroing in on the revenue quality of robot companies. Some firms have secured large orders via data collection centers and joint ventures backed by local governments, with local authorities even covering 80% to 90% of initial investment in some projects. Regulators are probing whether these revenues come from genuine independent customer demand or rely mainly on continuous funding from local projects. A person close to robot industry investors estimates that excluding revenue from data collection centers, the valuations of some robot companies could fall by 60% to 70%. Regulators now prioritize whether robots are actually deployed in factories, whether there are sustainable orders, and whether revenue is recurring. The sector has faced warnings earlier: Unitree Robotics saw its stock surge over 5 times on its debut, before dropping 55% from its peak. Mech-Mind CEO Shao Tianlan publicly questioned this month that some embodied intelligence firms are generating unsustainable revenue through data collection centers and related-party transactions, naming Galaxy General; Galaxy General later denied the allegations.

BlockBeats and Hyperliquid Chinese Channel officially launch the HYPE Community Rant Contest. The 7-day event runs from September 21 to September 28, where users can share their trading stories to win HYPE rewards. Eligible topics include: Who missed out on the Robinhood $PONS wealth train? Who got liquidated while holding positions when crude oil was more volatile than BTC and ETH in the middle of the night? Last year at this time, $ZEC was only 40 U… Did you catch the privacy narrative? $HYPE and $Lit hit new highs—are you still holding $Aster? The event offers three tiers of rewards, with the top prize being 9.99 HYPE. During the event, users must quote the event’s promotional content, post original topic tweets, and follow the Hyperliquid Chinese Channel. The event is exclusively sponsored by ecosystem project Aqua, with support from partners TradingBeats, CoinAnk, HyperEVM Chinese Station, and Hyperliquid Madhouse.

Recently, Kalshi’s crypto perpetual contract trading data has faced widespread skepticism from the community. The controversy began with crypto perpetual contracts: a trader noted that ETH perpetual open interest is only around millions of U.S. dollars, yet daily trading volume reaches hundreds of millions of dollars, with unusually high turnover. Kalshi’s head of crypto business, IcoBeast, responded by addressing the perpetual contracts and its crypto prediction markets separately, stating that prediction markets have no equivalent market maker rebates and their statistical methodology is comparable to industry peers. However, community discussions did not stop at perpetual contracts; suspicions of fraud spread to Kalshi’s core prediction market business. Prominent prediction market trader @retardmode posted that roughly 61% of Kalshi’s disclosed trading volume comes from "multi-event parlay bets" (called "串关" in Chinese), which bundle the outcomes of multiple events into a single ticket that requires all selections to be correct to win. The platform does not calculate volume based on users’ actual wagers, but instead uses a $1 par value per contract. For example, a user spending $1 on a parlay ticket that pays out $14.10 if all selections are correct will be recorded as $14.10 in trading volume. Nearly half of these parlay bets involve 11 or more events, resulting in extremely low win probabilities. Using this methodology, Kalshi’s actual trading volume yesterday was around $136 million, while its publicly disclosed figure was $1.91 billion. Top Polymarket trader @CarOnPolymarket further estimated that the actual trading volume of Kalshi’s parlay bets may only be roughly 7.1% of its disclosed parlay bet amount. Extrapolated monthly, this could create an extreme gap of approximately $4 billion in actual volume versus $57 billion in reported figures.

BlockBeats and Hyperliquid Chinese Channel officially launch the HYPE Community Rant Session. The 7-day event runs from September 21 to September 28, where users can win HYPE rewards by sharing their trading stories. Eligible topics include: - Who missed out on Robinhood’s $PONS "wealth train"? - Who got liquidated while holding positions when crude oil was more volatile than BTC and ETH in the middle of the night? - Back this time last year, $ZEC was only $40... Did you catch the privacy narrative? - $HYPE and $LIT hit new highs—are you still holding $ASTER? The event has three reward tiers, with the top prize being 9.99 HYPE. To participate, users must quote the event’s promotional content, post original topic tweets, and follow the Hyperliquid Chinese Channel. The event is exclusively sponsored by ecosystem project Aqua, and supported by partners TradingBeats, CoinAnk, HyperEVM Chinese Station, and Hyperliquid Madhouse.

Insight Beating AI Flash News: Anonymous math community account Captain Sude has released a new proof discovered by GPT-6 Astra, solving the Liouville version of the Goldbach problem. This problem relaxes the "two primes" condition in the classic Goldbach conjecture to "two integers with an odd total number of prime factors". Previously, Durham University mathematician Alexander P. Mangerel could only prove this under the assumptions that the Generalized Riemann Hypothesis holds and the even number is sufficiently large. Astra has now removed both constraints, proving that all even numbers greater than 2 satisfy the condition. The core approach is to first assume that a given even number cannot be split in this way, then derive contradictory results step by step. The full proof has been written in Lean 4. The project compiles successfully, and independent audit repositories have successfully reproduced the result, with no `sorry` statements or additional mathematical axioms found. The classic Goldbach conjecture itself remains unsolved, as the two addends here can still be composite numbers.

According to Bitget market data, Samsung Electronics’ stock price surged 5%, marking its largest single-day gain in two weeks and leading the Korea Composite Index. Note: Samsung Electronics’ dividend equity registration date is September 30.