European regulators warn Polymarket and Kalshi that they may lack the necessary licenses to serve EU users.

The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) released its latest risk report, stating that major prediction market platforms including Polymarket and Kalshi currently lack the required authorization to offer event contracts to EU users under normal circumstances. ESMA noted that the regulatory nature of event contracts depends on the specific product, which may be classified as financial instruments, crypto assets subject to the MiCA framework, or fall under gambling regulations of EU member states. If categorized as financial instruments, they typically qualify as derivatives and may be subject to EU retail restrictions on binary options. ESMA also questioned the current EU region restrictions imposed by Polymarket and Kalshi, pointing out that the two platforms only restrict access to some member states, and it remains unclear why all EU countries have not been included in the restricted list, while there is also a risk of VPNs being used to bypass geographic restrictions. In July this year, France ordered internet service providers to block Polymarket. In addition, ESMA warned that the AI boom could become a new risk transmission channel for the crypto market. If AI investment returns fall short of expectations or there is a sell-off in tech stocks, large investors may sell highly liquid risky assets including crypto assets to raise cash. ESMA data shows that Bitcoin fell 35% in the first half of 2026, with outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs exceeding $5.5 billion over the same period. ESMA has previously clarified that if event contracts are classified as financial instruments, their distribution in the EU requires an investment firm license and may be subject to retail bans on binary options.