trade.xyz Launches Event Contracts, Officially Enters the Prediction Market Space

According to BIT (Bit.com) market data, Apple’s U.S. stock is currently down 1.02%, with its market capitalization temporarily standing at $5.02 trillion. Apple stated in a post that it has noticed internal screen defects on a small number of iPhone Duo units, advising users to contact AppleCare for a replacement. Apple’s first foldable iPhone, the iPhone Duo, has seen consecutive screen damage issues near the hinge since its launch in major markets on October 23. Photos uploaded by users show that some devices have white, ray-like cracks starting from the hinge center and extending to the lower right of the screen. Industry insiders believe the defects, concentrated at the same hinge location, may be related to hinge design, and Apple may have to redesign the relevant structure. Reports indicate Apple faced hinge supply issues during the R&D phase. Its original primary supplier, U.S.-based Amphenol, was replaced by Taiwan’s Xinrixing due to lower-than-expected production yield, but the latter also encountered manufacturing difficulties and had to supply only "golden samples" that met standards. Apple previously stated the iPhone Duo’s hinge includes over 100 components and uses a 3D-printed hinge module. Since the product has entered mass production, Apple may need to resolve the defects by reducing hinge components and other methods while minimizing design changes. Reports note the hinge issues could impact product delivery and sales performance. Apple’s expected supply to suppliers shows that as of the end of this year, the component supply corresponding to the iPhone Duo’s full production capacity is about 6 million units. According to another report, component supplier Fine M-Tec has stated that recent quality issues with related products are unrelated to the assembly of its supplied components.

According to CryptoQuant data, stablecoin reserves held by Binance and Binance.US account for approximately 75% of the total stablecoin reserves of monitored cryptocurrency trading platforms, with the remaining platforms collectively making up the other 25%. This ratio stood at around 58% in mid-2025, and rose to nearly 75% by October 2026. The data indicates that stablecoin reserves are further concentrating on Binance, meaning its influence on crypto market liquidity is continuing to expand. Stablecoins can serve as potential trading funds, providing purchasing power for crypto assets such as Bitcoin, but an increase in reserve size does not necessarily signal an imminent entry of buy orders. Additionally, the rise in Binance’s stablecoin reserve share may stem from declines in other trading platforms’ reserves rather than net capital inflows. Therefore, subsequent analysis will still need to combine total stablecoin volume and capital flows to determine whether this will translate into new demand for the crypto market.

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with the National Basketball Association (NBA). The two parties will share information and establish communication mechanisms to uphold fairness in prediction market trading, and prevent insider trading and market manipulation. The NBA also announced that Kalshi and Polymarket will serve as its preferred prediction market platforms. The NBA is the third U.S. professional sports league to ink a similar deal with the CFTC, following the National Hockey League (NHL) and Major League Baseball (MLB). Regulatory authority over prediction markets remains a contentious issue. The CFTC maintains that most prediction market contracts are swaps subject to its exclusive jurisdiction, while multiple U.S. states argue the platforms violate state gambling laws. New Jersey has petitioned the U.S. Supreme Court to resolve the dispute, and the NFL has filed an amicus curiae brief asserting that sports prediction contracts count as gambling and should be regulated by states. Moreover, insider trading in prediction markets continues to draw close scrutiny. Both Kalshi and Polymarket stated they have taken measures to enhance verification of identity and employment details for traders with access to sensitive market information, to mitigate risks of trading based on non-public data.

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin once again fell below $80,000, with a 0.84% decline in the past 24 hours.

In its latest research note, Bernstein maintained its "Outperform" ratings for Coinbase, Robinhood, and Circle, while revising the three firms’ earnings forecasts and price targets. As crypto spot trading growth slows, prediction markets, derivatives, and tokenization businesses are emerging as new growth engines for these players. For Coinbase, Bernstein cut its price target from $330 to $250, lowered its 2026 revenue forecast by roughly 32% to $5.5 billion, and projects an annual net loss of $2.60 per share, down from its prior forecast of $5.97 in earnings per share (EPS). The firm expects Coinbase’s prediction market and derivatives businesses to generate around $2 billion in revenue by 2028, up from its earlier estimate of roughly $600 million. For Robinhood, Bernstein kept its $160 price target unchanged, forecasting its prediction market business will hit $1.7 billion in revenue by 2028, slightly outpacing the $1.6 billion projected for its crypto business in the same period. The firm projects Robinhood’s third-quarter event contract volume will rise 21% quarter-over-quarter to around 16.4 billion contracts; its in-house blockchain, launched in July, generated roughly $90 billion in transaction volume and $50 million in fees in Q3. For Circle, Bernstein raised its price target from $140 to $145, and forecasts its third-quarter revenue will edge up to $770 million. While USDC’s circulation fell from roughly $77 billion in Q2 to around $73 billion, weighing on reserve-related revenue, Arc’s token presales, future transaction fees, and validator staking income are poised to provide new growth sources.

Goldman Sachs data shows US retail stock trading activity has fallen by around 45% from end-2025, with retail trading’s share of total US stock volume dropping from 15% at the end of last year to roughly 9% — near its lowest level since 2020. The bank attributes the slump to rising energy prices, weak consumer confidence, and higher US Treasury yields, which are eroding retail investors’ willingness to buy. Despite cooling enthusiasm for short-term trading, US households net purchased around $840 billion in US stocks in the first half of the year, while stock mutual funds and ETFs drew roughly $350 billion in inflows so far this year. However, household stock assets are highly concentrated, with the top 10% of households holding approximately 87% of total household stock holdings. Goldman Sachs also warns the US stock market is facing supply pressure: US public and private companies combined to net issue around $175 billion in equity in the first half of 2026. The bank projects that net supply growth in the US public stock market could hit its highest level since 2000 in 2027, driven by new share offerings and lock-up expirations. With hedge funds reducing positions and corporate equity supply rising, Goldman Sachs argues that whether US households continue buying stocks will be key to the market’s ability to absorb the new supply. Its baseline forecast suggests household stock demand will likely stay robust if the labor market remains stable and bond yields moderate.