Institution: Gold bull market enters new phase, with capital adding positions in physical gold, futures and options simultaneously.

French investment bank Societe Generale said the 2026 gold bull market is shifting from a phase driven by speculative momentum to a new stage where demand for physical gold, futures and options is converging, with signs of synchronized position-building by different types of capital in the gold market. Societe Generale data shows that net inflows into gold ETFs in August reached 201 tons, marking the third-largest monthly figure in history, second only to February 2009 and March 2020. Meanwhile, the nominal net long position of gold futures held by asset management institutions rose to the second-highest level in history, second only to the level seen in January this year when gold prices broke through $5,400 per ounce. The options market is also sending bullish signals: investors are using put options to hedge short-term risks while continuously building long-dated call option positions, indicating that while the market remains focused on short-term volatility, it still holds an optimistic outlook for gold’s medium- and long-term trend. Societe Generale believes that sustained central bank gold purchases, de-dollarization, geopolitical risks and sovereign debt concerns are lifting the floor for gold prices and weakening the traditional headwind that high real interest rates pose to gold. As gold volatility eases, its appeal to long-term reserve managers has also increased. Regarding Federal Reserve policy, Societe Generale said market expectations for further interest rate hikes have been largely priced in, and gold’s downside risks are gradually narrowing. The bank maintains a "strategically bullish" stance on gold, arguing that factors including persistent inflationary pressures, U.S. tariffs, AI and infrastructure investment, and high fiscal deficits could still provide support for gold prices.