A cross-market whale with $20 million in holdings has reached a consensus, yet still expects CLARITY has low odds of becoming legal tender this year.

According to TradingBeats' monitoring, the implied probability that the CLARITY Act will be signed into law this year has dropped to 15.5%. Among whales active across markets in this prediction market segment, only two traders who have long been active on both Polymarket and Hyperliquid still hold their previously established "Yes" positions, and have not exited as odds have fallen. TwoEyes and Geminae.Columbae currently hold a combined ~254,600 "Yes" contracts, with a position value of roughly $39,500, and a combined unrealized loss of ~$11,800. The average entry cost for both corresponds to a roughly 20% probability of the Act being signed into law, meaning the market price is now significantly lower than their entry level. Of the two, TwoEyes holds ~195,500 "Yes" contracts, with an average entry cost corresponding to a 20.2% probability, and an unrealized loss of ~$9,197; Geminae.Columbae holds ~59,200 contracts, with an entry cost probability of 19.94%, and an unrealized loss of ~$2,628. The two still hold large exposure to crypto assets on the other side. Data from Hyperliquid shows their combined nominal size of current crypto long positions is ~$19.92 million. TwoEyes holds a ~$1.606 million BTC long position, plus a ~$348,000 crude oil short position. Geminae.Columbae, meanwhile, holds long positions in BTC, ZEC, LINK, and HYPE, totaling ~$18.317 million.