Serenity: Storage prices and the supply-demand structure remain tight, and short-term rises do not indicate that bottlenecks have been overcome.

Serenity issued a reminder that the fundamental factor driving the storage shortage has not changed, and may even grow more acute. The market rotates from one bottleneck sector to another, but the companies themselves remain unchanged—what shifts are valuations and market narratives. Serenity added several pieces of evidence suggesting the storage supply-demand gap could be wider than market expectations: Nikkei reported that Japanese distributors stated the storage demand gap has reached 40% to 60%, with prices potentially rising by around 50% by year-end; SpaceX’s capital expenditure, excluded from the ultra-large cloud service providers’ roughly $1.3 trillion total capex, may exceed forecasts; SanDisk’s 80% gross margin is projected to hold through 2030; order visibility for firms like Samsung has extended to 2031. Serenity stressed that storage stocks are highly volatile. It holds some positions with unrealized gains of over 270%, which enables it to hold on more firmly, though a company’s operational fundamentals often do not align with short-term stock prices. The same logic applies to other bottleneck segments including optical modules, CW lasers, and substrates. After stock price rebounds, one should not assume the shortage has ended. Storage prices and supply-demand structure remain tight, while market sentiment and valuation narratives are rotating rapidly.