Hyperliquid: Permissionless deployment pushes HIP-4 prediction market trading volume nearly threefold, with market access remaining a key limitation.

Hyperliquid Research Collective (HRC) released a report noting that after Hyperliquid opened third-party permissionless deployment for its HIP-4 prediction market layer on August 29, the platform’s trading volume grew rapidly. The average daily trading volume of HIP-4 in the first 28 days of August was around $545,000; following the deployment opening, single-day volume hit $1.97 million on August 31, with a 24-hour trading volume reaching $2.75 million, and the number of active traders rose from 1,256 to 1,841. The report points out that prediction market project Outcome has been the main beneficiary, currently accounting for nearly 85% of HIP-4’s total trading volume, and its $1 million trading incentive program further boosted liquidity growth. HRC attributes Hyperliquid’s core advantage to its unified account system: prediction markets can share the same account environment as perpetual contracts and HIP-3 assets, allowing users to hedge perpetual positions via prediction market contracts—an experience not currently offered by platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. Sports prediction markets may become HIP-4’s largest growth area. During the recent World Cup, HIP-4-related markets recorded a cumulative trading volume of $189.5 million, accounting for around 3% of the global World Cup prediction market trading volume. However, HRC states that HIP-4’s current main limitation is not on-chain deployment, but regulatory access. The U.S. market involves regulatory frameworks from the CFTC, SEC, and other bodies, with sports prediction markets in particular likely triggering gambling-related regulatory scrutiny. HIP-4 has proven that permissionless deployment can rapidly expand trading scale, but whether it can further grow its market share will depend on the regulatory environment, recovery of the sports market, and future governance votes.