The US-Iran conflict has reignited, with analysts noting that Washington has lost patience with the progress of its sanctions pressure campaign.

On August 30, the U.S. military destroyed two rocket launchers on Iran’s Larak Island, ending the roughly month-long “truce period” in direct military clashes between the U.S. and Iran. Iran subsequently fired eight missiles at two air bases in Jordan, all of which were intercepted. Following that, Trump threatened to destroy Kharg Island, Iran’s key oil export hub. Analysts believe this round of military escalation reflects the U.S.’ growing impatience with the progress of pressuring Iran solely through sanctions. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent previously stated that the U.S. plans to roll out new sanctions on Iran every week, focusing on the banking system, and aims to completely exclude institutions linked to Tehran from the U.S. dollar system. However, experts expect Trump’s threat against Kharg Island is more likely to remain just rhetoric. Directly destroying the island’s oil infrastructure would not only likely cause a major environmental disaster but also significantly escalate the conflict. Iran may in the future rely more on asymmetric responses, such as pressure through proxies, shipping, and energy transport. With two key shipping lanes—the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—both facing risks, markets are concerned about further disruptions to global energy transport. Analysts noted that last week, crude oil volumes transiting the Strait of Hormuz via the Oman Channel under U.S. military escort stood at around 7 million barrels per day, but the escalation of clashes around Larak Island could lead to a drop in volumes in the coming days and further push up oil prices.