Morgan Stanley Previews Walsh’s Speech: May Downplay Short-Term Rate Guidance, Outline Long-Term Policy Direction

Beating AI Express: OpenAI has launched its second Startup Fund, a $400 million vehicle fully funded by the company itself. The first fund, raised in 2021 with $175 million from external investors including Microsoft (with no capital contributed by OpenAI), allowed OpenAI to claim a portion of investment profits, though most economic returns went to limited partners (LPs). Now, by fully backing the second fund, OpenAI will retain most of the investment gains rather than routing them to external LPs. The first fund has invested in 24 companies, including AI coding tool Cursor and legal AI firm Harvey, and has fully deployed its capital. Notably, Cursor was just acquired by SpaceX this month, with the deal carrying an implied equity value of $60 billion. The new fund will continue to focus on early-stage AI startups, planning to invest in 8 to 10 companies annually, targeting direct lead investments. Individual investments start at several million dollars, typically capped at $50 million, with potential for up to $100 million for high-priority projects. Previously, despite bearing the OpenAI name, the Startup Fund relied primarily on external capital. Now that the first fund has delivered results, OpenAI is committing $400 million to continue investing, taking on the risk itself and retaining a larger share of returns.

According to Fortune, Grayscale CEO Peter Mintzberg wrote in a post that Bitcoin rose roughly 20% last week, marking its strongest three-day rally since 2023, signaling the months-long "crypto winter" is fading. However, he noted that markets should not focus solely on short-term rallies or sell-offs; the more significant trend is the long-term integration of digital assets into the mainstream financial system. Mintzberg pointed out that in 2025, Bitcoin's daily fund flows through exchange-traded products (ETPs) often exceed $500 million, roughly 12 times the daily value of new Bitcoin issued by miners. While U.S. spot Bitcoin ETPs saw net outflows for eight consecutive weeks earlier this year, they have returned to net inflows for three straight weeks as of late July. A survey by EY of more than 350 institutional investors also found that 73% plan to increase their allocations to digital assets. Corporate adoption is also advancing steadily. In 2025, roughly 60% of Fortune 500 executives said their companies are running blockchain projects, while firms including Fidelity, Visa, and Stripe are expanding their stablecoin operations. Mintzberg believes AI and blockchain are not mutually competitive; the demand for machine-native micropayments and instant cross-border settlements generated by AI agents could further drive public blockchain adoption.

SK Hynix CEO Kwak Noh-jung said the company is exploring ways to deepen cooperation with Japanese memory chip customers and suppliers, and is carefully evaluating how to jointly develop the NAND flash market. Regarding its significant indirect stake in Kioxia, he noted there are "no definite plans at present." After Toshiba reduced its holdings this month, BCPE Pangea Cayman2—the investment vehicle holding relevant shares for SK Hynix—has become Kioxia’s largest shareholder with a 14.19% stake. SK Hynix holds bonds convertible to nearly all voting rights of this investment vehicle; under the prior agreement, its voting rights will not exceed 15% before 2028 unless Kioxia consents. Additionally, SK Hynix is investing over $4 billion to build its first U.S.-based HBM packaging facility in Indiana. The factory’s cleanroom is scheduled to open in October 2028, with next-generation HBM set for mass production in the second half of 2029, and approximately 1,000 employees are expected to be hired once full operations launch. The company is also still evaluating the possibility of listing its U.S. NAND subsidiary Solidigm, though no decision has been made yet.

Beating AI News (Dongcha): Anthropic wins its latest lawsuit against the Pentagon. U.S. federal judge Rita Lin ruled that the U.S. government’s designation of Anthropic as a “supply chain risk,” its demand for federal agencies to discontinue use of Claude, and its restriction on defense contractors partnering with the company are all illegal. The court found these measures constituted retaliation against Anthropic for its public criticism of the government’s AI policies. The ruling heavily criticized the evidence submitted by the government. The entire basis for the measures was a single four-page memo, which was dated later than two of the three actions taken. The government had previously raised concerns that Anthropic could modify its deployed models via a “backdoor,” but court filings confirmed the company held no such access. The judge concluded the government’s only remaining justification was its “distrust” of Anthropic and its desire to publicly assert authority over the firm. The conflict originated over restrictions on military use of Claude. Anthropic has maintained the model should not be used for mass surveillance of Americans or fully autonomous weapons, while the Pentagon demanded access for all legal purposes. The court also clarified the ruling does not force the military to continue using Claude. The Pentagon may still legally switch vendors, but it can no longer use the “supply chain risk” designation to blacklist Anthropic.

According to monitoring by TradingBeats (formerly Hyperinsight), Polymarket trader "xm39"—who had previously bet on both "the U.S. will invade Iran before 2027" and gone long on crude oil—began scaling back positions on both sides of the "escalating war" thesis yesterday, flipping to short crude oil this morning. Yesterday, its associated address 0x40f liquidated 175,900 WTI crude oil long positions for ~$14.253 million, incurring a $282,000 loss. About two minutes later, "xm39" sold its Polymarket war prediction positions in bulk: 1.1823 million "Yes" contracts for "the U.S. will invade Iran before 2027" via 50 trades. At sale, the market-implied probability of the event was ~14.1%, generating ~$166,700 in proceeds. The sale covered 75.5% of its position, leaving 383,100 contracts. As of press time, the market-implied probability of the U.S. invading Iran before 2027 has fallen further to 12.5%. The average entry probability for its remaining contracts is ~23.28%, with a current value of ~$47,900, an unrealized loss of ~$41,300, and a 46.3% loss rate. Early today, the address opened 122,500 CL (crude oil) short positions, currently holding a $10.183 million full-position short with 20x leverage, ~$30,000 in unrealized profit, a 5.9% return rate, and a $93.09 liquidation price. It set 7 stop-loss orders at $83.522–$84.001, covering ~91.3% of its current short. WTI crude oil rose 1.6% overnight to $83.53, driven by cooling U.S.-Iran talk expectations and resurgent supply risks, though prices are still down ~4.3% this week. The 0x40f short was built right after the overnight rebound. Earlier context: Trader "xm39" had predicted crude oil would keep rising, boosting his position to $48 million in on-chain perpetual contracts. Perpetual and address analysis tool TradingBeats is now live, supporting real-time Hyperliquid data viewing, address-based whale operation tracing, and in-depth analysis at a glance.

According to monitoring by TradingBeats (formerly Hyperinsight), ENA is trading at $0.1686, up approximately 16.3% in the past 24 hours, with a trading volume of around $138 million and open interest of about $73.773 million. ENA hit a low of $0.07696 on July 30, and has since rebounded roughly 119.1% from its near-month low; it reached an intraday high of $0.18994 today, and is now down about 11.2% from that peak. A whale address starting with 0x0911 went long on ENA on July 28, roughly two days earlier than the aforementioned stage low, and has held the position for about a month. Currently, the whale holds a 10x fully leveraged long position on 9.453 million ENA tokens, with a position value of around $1.594 million, an average entry price of $0.09498, and an unrealized profit of approximately $696,000, translating to a return of 775.5%. TradingBeats, an on-chain Perpetual (Perp) and address analysis tool, is now live, supporting real-time viewing of Hyperliquid data—from tracing whale operations to in-depth address analysis, all accessible at a glance.