Analysis: Bitcoin's next price movement may hinge on PCE data, Nvidia's earnings report, and Waller's remarks.

Bitcoin’s next move may hinge on three key events this week: the U.S. July PCE inflation data, NVIDIA’s second-quarter financial results, and remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Warsh at the Jackson Hole Symposium. After surging from around $63,000 to above $80,000, Bitcoin has now pulled back to below $79,000, with its 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) exceeding 70, indicating a short-term overbought condition. Markets expect the U.S. July core PCE to rise 3.2% year-over-year and 0.18% month-over-month, compared to 3.3% YoY and 0.13% MoM in June. A hotter-than-expected reading could reignite fears of Federal Reserve rate hikes, putting pressure on Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. CME FedWatch data shows the bond market currently assigns a nearly 38% probability to a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in September. NVIDIA will release its second-quarter earnings after the market close on Wednesday. A strong beat on results could ease market concerns over AI capital expenditures relying on debt financing, and support risk assets. Since the start of 2025, the 90-day rolling correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and NVIDIA’s stock price has remained above 0.5 for most of the period. Traders will also be watching Warsh’s remarks on Friday. The U.S. Treasury’s recent plan to increase long-term Treasury repurchases to curb yield rises has been viewed by markets as a catalyst driving Bitcoin’s recent rally. Markets will monitor whether Warsh adjusts his previous stance favoring market-based pricing, and whether he expresses support for the Treasury’s related actions.