Analyst: Bitcoin on-chain capital inflows turn positive for the first time in nearly three months, yet demand strength remains at a historic low.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted that Bitcoin’s on-chain fund flows showed directional improvement in the second half of August. The realized market cap relative to net position change rose to +0.10% on August 24, marking the first positive reading since May 28, and climbed further to +0.21% as of August 26, signaling the end of the net capital outflow state that had persisted for nearly three months. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s 30-day apparent demand/new supply ratio has stayed above 1 for six consecutive days, with the latest figure at 2.52, meaning 30-day apparent demand is roughly 2.5 times the new BTC issued in the same period. This metric hit a low of -6.93 on August 2 and peaked at 3.16 on August 21. That said, the absolute strength of both indicators remains low. Since 2024, the median of realized market cap during positive periods stands at +3.24%, while the current +0.21% falls only in the bottom 3-4% of positive samples. The historical median of the apparent demand ratio when it is above 1 is 7.65, and the current 2.52 is also in the bottom 10% of readings. Adler added that the more critical signal at present is that fund flows have shifted from net outflow to small net inflow, and demand has once again outpaced new supply, though a robust new demand cycle cannot yet be confirmed. Going forward, it will be necessary to monitor whether realized market cap can stay positive and whether apparent demand can expand further.