Mizuho: This round of crypto rebound has a better quality than previous rounds, with its capital structure likely driven by spot markets and ETFs.

Against the backdrop of Bitcoin’s resurgence and a rebound in crypto-related stocks, investment bank Mizuho believes the quality of the current cryptocurrency market rally may be better than previous cycles. The bank’s analyst Dan Dolev noted that the current upswing is not primarily driven by high leverage. Crypto-denominated open interest has fallen to a one-month low after the initial rally, indicating the funding structure is closer to being driven by spot markets and ETFs — a key factor for market sentiment. In many past crypto rallies, rapid leverage buildup often amplified volatility, and once prices pulled back, it tended to trigger a chain of liquidations. Mizuho points out that spot Bitcoin ETF inflows have been more prominent in this cycle, with a net inflow of around $1.9 billion over the past week, marking the strongest weekly inflow since October 2025, showing traditional capital channels are still supporting crypto assets. The bank expects platform-based firms like Robinhood, eToro, and BitGo to benefit the most if the rally continues, as a rebound in trading volume will directly boost revenue from brokerage, custody, and institutional services. Especially amid a recovery in retail trading, sustained ETF demand, and expanding institutional custody needs, crypto infrastructure companies are more likely to achieve stable revenue elasticity than single tokens. However, the market will still be influenced by U.S. Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar’s performance, and risk appetite. If the Jackson Hole symposium delivers a hawkish signal, or if the U.S. stock market’s AI sector continues to correct, crypto assets may face short-term pressure. Mizuho’s assessment leans toward the medium-term structure: this rally has fewer leverage bubbles, and if spot demand continues to flow in, crypto stocks will have a clearer path for earnings transmission.