预测市场看衰贝森特「托市」：巴克莱称10年期美债合理收益率或达4.95%

Markets are closely watching Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at this Friday’s Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. As U.S. long-term Treasury yields continue to rise, markets widely expect Warsh to signal a dovish tilt to ease bond market concerns over inflation and fiscal risks. Mark Cabana, head of U.S. rates strategy at Bank of America, noted that markets have grown less sensitive to Warsh’s previous verbal remarks on fighting inflation, with investors now eager to see concrete policy paths to address inflation. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has recently stepped up purchases of long-term Treasuries and increased issuance of short-term T-bills to fund government spending, reflecting a degree of divergence between the Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve in bond market management. The article points out that Bessent’s shift of financing pressure to the short end effectively bets U.S. fiscal costs on future interest rate cuts. If Warsh can drive interest rate cuts by curbing inflation and boosting productivity, the short-term debt financing model is expected to reduce the government’s interest expenses; however, if long-term rates remain elevated, U.S. fiscal pressure could intensify further. Markets also expect the Federal Reserve to adjust its liquidity management and balance sheet policies. Michael Cloherty, head of U.S. rates strategy at CIBC, believes quantitative tightening (QT) could begin as early as the end of 2027, provided regulatory adjustments reduce banks’ demand for reserves. The Federal Reserve currently holds around $1.6 trillion in long-term U.S. Treasuries. Warsh’s remarks at Jackson Hole this time on long-term yields, inflation, and balance sheet reduction paths will likely serve as a key signal to gauge the future degree of policy coordination between the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department.

YZi Labs announces the completion of the fourth season of its EASY Residency program, with 24 early-stage projects in Web3, AI, and biotech selected, each receiving $500,000 in funding. This season’s projects underwent 10 weeks of online and in-person incubation in Bhutan, focusing on next-generation global financial infrastructure. The projects primarily cover areas including stablecoin payments and cross-border settlements, on-chain foreign exchange and credit, institutional-grade liquidity and market making, privacy and compliance, AI agents and automated trading, on-chain financial consumer and enterprise applications, AI security, and creator infrastructure. Among them: Aile focuses on on-chain foreign exchange for regional stablecoins; D0 provides local payment rails for emerging markets; Kravata offers stablecoin accounts, payments, and on/off-ramp infrastructure for Latin America; Nara develops programmable cross-border credit; Primus delivers institutional-grade on-chain privacy infrastructure; Roostoo builds an AI trading agent training and curation platform; xAPI creates an API marketplace for AI agents; and XStable provides on-chain gold and foreign exchange trading infrastructure. YZi Labs stated that this season’s projects reflect its outlook on the future of global payments, on-chain markets, and "agentic finance"—namely that financial infrastructure will become more programmable, localized, compliant, and further integrated into daily financial scenarios. Currently, YZi Labs manages over $10 billion in assets, with a portfolio of more than 300 projects across 25 countries and regions, including over 65 that have participated in its incubation programs.

Expectations of easing tensions between the U.S. and Iran have risen, driving a broad rebound in global risk assets. The New York Times reported that the U.S. is preparing to allow previously evacuated diplomatic staff to return to its Middle East embassies, leading markets to believe Washington does not expect a full-scale conflict with Iran in the near term. Brent crude oil briefly fell below $90 per barrel, dropping more than 3% on the day; WTI crude oil also declined by around 3%. U.S. stock futures rose, with S&P 500 futures up 0.4% and Nasdaq 100 futures gaining 0.9%. The semiconductor sector led gains, with Nvidia rising around 0.9% in pre-market trading, on track to end a seven-day losing streak. AI-related stocks including Micron and Seagate also saw notable strength. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell by roughly 3 basis points to 4.66%, with lower bond yields supporting risk assets. In the crypto market, Bitcoin (BTC) briefly broke above $80,000 for the first time since mid-May, though its gains later narrowed. Markets attribute BTC’s rise to a resurgence of bets on a weaker U.S. dollar and recent intervention in the bond market by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, which pushed some funds to seek dollar-alternative assets. Meanwhile, billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller wrote an op-ed in The Wall Street Journal criticizing Bessent’s bond market intervention, stating, “Governments that try to push prices away from fundamentals always fail in the end.” Markets are now closely watching Nvidia’s earnings, U.S. PCE inflation data, and remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole symposium this Friday, as these events could further shape market and interest rate expectations for September.

Several Wall Street institutions have released updated individual stock ratings and target price adjustments. Goldman Sachs raised Coinbase’s target price from $173 to $196, maintaining its "Buy" rating, noting that a sustained improvement in the crypto market environment and growth in new businesses such as derivatives and prediction markets will bring additional upside potential for COIN. Raymond James upgraded AMD’s rating from "Outperform" to "Strong Buy" and lifted its target price from $565 to $641. Bank of America maintained "Buy" ratings for NVIDIA, Marvell, and Micron (MU), stating that semiconductor stocks including NVDA, MRVL, MU, and AMD offer more attractive allocation opportunities. Additionally, Canaccord maintained a "Buy" rating for Strategy, raising its target price from $130 to $175. Wolfe maintained an "Outperform" rating for Netflix, increasing its target price from $84 to $95. In other rating moves, Morgan Stanley upgraded Dynatrace to "Overweight"; UBS upgraded Fluence to "Neutral"; Wolfe upgraded Moderna to "In Line With Sector"; Wells Fargo upgraded Shift4 Payments to "Overweight".

Yesterday, BTC spot demand was roughly on par with the previous day, while demand in the futures market continued to rise, exerting upward pressure on BTC prices. Currently, whales are actively accumulating BTC futures positions, and once they complete their position building, a larger-scale rally may follow. Retail capital is expected to enter the market after the first leg of the rally, driving a further increase in spot demand, which could trigger a stronger upward move. Analysts note that the market is still in the early stages of a bull run, and a truly large-scale rally will unfold only after BTC spot demand rebounds significantly. Recent market data also shows notable growth in BTC futures open interest and demand, yet spot demand remains the key variable to gauge whether the rally can sustain.

JPMorgan Chase reaffirmed its "overweight" rating on SpaceX (SPCX.O) and a $240 price target, citing growing confidence in the prospects of its Grok artificial intelligence. The bank highlighted SpaceX's acquisition of Cursor, with reports noting that Cursor has an annual recurring revenue (ARR) of approximately $40 billion, 75% of which comes from enterprise business. JPMorgan expects Cursor to strengthen SpaceX's enterprise AI strategy, model training data, and Grok's performance.