Fu Peng: The market’s tolerance for the "investment-return" mismatch in AI has dropped significantly, and investors need to see quantifiable long-term returns.
56 minutes ago
Fu Peng, chief economist of New Fire Group, noted that Tencent’s latest free cash flow has turned negative, a trend similar to major tech firms including Alibaba, Silicon Valley’s Meta, and Google. Large-scale AI capital expenditure has disrupted the previous model of robust free cash flow paired with stable share buybacks and dividend payouts. Fu Peng added that the market’s tolerance for AI’s “investment-return mismatch” has dropped significantly since Q2 this year. Application-side revenue remains in the validation phase relative to cumulative investments of hundreds of billions of yuan, and investors need to see quantifiable long-term returns. Current investor sentiment has shifted from earlier hype to caution; the next several quarters will be a critical window. This shift means investors must see truly optimistic, quantifiable, and certain revenue growth to resolve their doubts. Thus, during this “ROI proof or disproof” waiting period, barring major external systemic shocks, the market will remain stuck in a dilemma: “can’t not invest, but also can’t invest freely”. The market will show support from fundamentals (preventing aggressive bearish bets) and scrutiny on ROI (discouraging blind bullish positions). Capital markets are waiting for a “Killer App”, while the industry is actually waiting for “breakthroughs in unit computing power costs” and “inflection points in workflow restructuring”.
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