Hong Hao: Cycle research and "fortune-telling" are essentially both predictions, the difference lies in their methodologies.

At Binance’s offline private sharing event, renowned economist Hong Hao stated that both investment research and traditional fortune-telling are essentially forms of future prediction, differing only in their underlying methodologies. Hong Hao noted that traditional fortune-telling draws more on long-term empirical observations to derive patterns, while investment research relies on historical data, uses quantitative analysis to summarize patterns, and extrapolates future trends—both are fundamentally attempts to understand future uncertainty. He added that there is no one-size-fits-all standard answer for market predictions. “For example, I cannot give everyone a uniform answer on when to buy the dip, as investment decisions vary from person to person.” In his view, both cycle research and prediction are essentially explorations of future patterns, yet all predictions have their limits and require a sense of reverence. Hong Hao concluded: “Prediction is, at its core, peeking into the future, and ‘divulging heavenly secrets’ is inherently a highly challenging endeavor.”