Ethereum Treasury Stocks Rise Collectively in Pre-Market Trading

Glassnode’s analysis notes that Bitcoin’s current volatility is at a historic low, but the factor truly suppressing volatility is not market cap growth. Using a regression model to test variables’ explanatory power for “de-trended realized volatility”, results show that the share of long-term holder (LTH) supply is the strongest driver, with an explanatory power of nearly 19% to 20%—far exceeding other indicators. Illiquid supply accounts for ~12%, and activity accounts for ~11.5%, ranking second and third respectively. By contrast, market cap itself has an explanatory power of only ~3.5%, placing it last, while stablecoin ratio has almost zero explanatory power. This means the intuition that “Bitcoin’s volatility drops as its market cap grows” is invalid: the more BTC is concentrated in long-term holders who rarely trade, the fewer floating chips available for pump-and-dump schemes and short-term speculation, leading to lower realized volatility. The key is the fragility of this structure: low volatility does not mean the market has matured enough to avoid sharp swings, but rather that floating chips are locked up. Once long-term holders start selling and illiquid supply becomes active again, volatility can quickly surge from its current low. While leverage, funding rates, and futures positions do have an impact, they all rank below the holder structure. The market’s current “dull” appearance is essentially a temporary steady state driven by chip distribution, not a permanent structural change.

HSBC Global Chief Investment Officer Willem Sels said U.S. stocks are not as expensive as they appear, with valuations not fully reflecting the scale of the AI-driven productivity and earnings boom. Sels noted the price-to-earnings (P/E) gap between U.S. and European stocks has narrowed, but valuation multiples have not yet fully priced in the structural AI investment cycle. Chipmakers in particular are trading at a discount, with even 2027 earnings growth forecasts coming under question. Sels believes this skepticism will reverse as companies provide more concrete evidence via orders and guidance. Overall bullish on equities, Sels said stocks have repeatedly shaken off volatile headwinds, thanks to stronger-than-expected economic and corporate resilience, as well as proactive responses from governments and firms to shocks rather than passive waiting. Companies adopting AI are posting stronger earnings, revenue, and profit growth than non-adopters, especially in the U.S., proving the technology is delivering tangible productivity gains. The biggest risk to equities is a sharp rise in bond yields, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield around 5% viewed as a potential trigger for volatility. The market has "long been spoiled by low bond volatility," but strong earnings tailwinds make it hard for stocks not to keep rising.

According to Bitget market data, Metaplanet, Japan’s largest Bitcoin treasury firm, saw its stock close down 9.9% to 244 yen today, bringing its two-day total decline to around 17%. Recently, Metaplanet CEO Simon Gerovich published a statement addressing controversies over the company’s executive compensation plan and its relationship with shareholder MMXX Ventures, acknowledging that the firm failed to fully explain the 10th new share subscription rights incentive plan and MMXX’s organizational structure. Gerovich noted that he is an important but non-controlling shareholder of MMXX’s parent company and did not participate in the firm’s transaction decisions, though market skepticism has not been dispelled.

South Korea’s second-largest cryptocurrency exchange platform Bithumb’s holding firm Bithumb Holdings recently held a board meeting, appointing Kim Kibum—a close associate of controlling shareholder Lee Jung-hoon—as its new CEO. Outgoing CEO Lee Jaewon stepped down to focus on managing the Bithumb exchange platform itself. Kim Kibum previously served as Bithumb’s head of external relations, overseeing external communications and compliance management.

Beating AI News Flash: OpenAI has rolled out a "Writing style" feature for ChatGPT Work. Once connected to Gmail, Google Drive, Slack, and SharePoint, the tool can learn a user’s writing style — including common terms, sign-offs, and capitalization habits — from their past emails, messages, and files. When drafting emails, messages, or documents, ChatGPT Work will automatically apply these learned preferences. Previously, to get ChatGPT to "write like you", users usually had to describe their tone or repeatedly provide sample texts; now Work can handle this step by automatically learning from existing work content. A widely debated issue in the community is that people often use different writing styles across scenarios (for example, Gmail and Slack may have entirely distinct tones), and OpenAI has not yet clarified how it will address this. The feature is currently accessible via the web interface at Settings → Personalization → Writing style, and will later be applied to ChatGPT Work’s web and mobile versions.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost pointed out that during the minor pullback after Bitcoin broke above $80,000, a relatively positive on-chain signal has emerged: the proportion of native Bitcoin supply held by Long-Term Holders (LTHs, addresses holding BTC for more than six months) has risen significantly. The logic behind this is that many coins purchased during the pullback have not been flipped quickly; instead, they are being held until they cross the six-month holding threshold, shifting from Short-Term Holders (STHs) to LTHs. This “buy the dip and hold tight rather than trade frequently” phenomenon typically occurs in bear markets or during sharp declines, reflecting reduced trading willingness among market participants and a preference for long-term holding. Darkfost considers this shift positive, noting that Bitcoin held by LTHs is usually “more stable” with lower liquidity and less prone to being sold off easily. An increase in such coins helps build a more solid support base. While this is a long-term positive development, it is not an immediate signal to reverse the market trend—bottoms are formed gradually over time. Most current market participants believe that a bottom region is taking shape, and the migration of coin supply structure is itself part of the bottom formation process.