Analysis: Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score falls to a multi-year low, with the market entering an undervalued territory but not yet completing bottoming out.

Crypto Quant analyst Axel Adler Jr noted in a post that Bitcoin’s valuation metric, the MVRV Z-Score, has dropped to a multi-year low but remains above negative territory, signaling the market is undervalued rather than in the full capitulation phase typical of a cycle bottom. Data shows BTC’s MVRV Z-Score is currently around 0.42, far below its historical average of 1.7, and has hovered near zero for 30 consecutive days. Since the end of 2025, the metric has trended downward, hitting a phase low of roughly 0.185 on June 30, but has not entered negative territory which would indicate widespread selling. Meanwhile, BTC’s 7-day realized profit/loss metric has turned positive, standing at approximately +$239 million. For most of the prior month, this metric was negative: losses hit $8.5 billion in June, and a weekly loss of around $3 billion was recorded in mid-July. The rebound in realized profit/loss shows selling pressure is easing, but the MVRV Z-Score has yet to break below zero to trigger capitulation selling, meaning the market is currently closer to an “undervalued + stabilizing” phase rather than a confirmed cycle bottom. If the MVRV Z-Score later rebounds toward its historical average of 1.7 and realized profit/loss stays positive, this could signal a market upturn; conversely, a drop below the June low of 0.185 and entry into negative territory would likely indicate a new round of pressure release.