Fu Peng: Global assets, including the underlying fundamentals of major cryptocurrencies, are tied to liquidity. The current tightening of funding conditions is triggering a "liquidity squeeze" market.

Fu Peng, the newly appointed chief economist of Xinhuo Group, shared his views yesterday, noting that global assets—including the fundamentals of mainstream cryptocurrencies—are tied to liquidity. The current shift from loose to tight liquidity has triggered a "shrinking circle" market trend, with funds flowing into high-certainty core assets. Fu Peng believes the AI industry has reached a critical inflection point, moving from the capital-burning hardware infrastructure phase to value validation. Major players like Google have seen their free cash flow drop to zero, and capital markets no longer endorse the logic of mere capital expenditure expansion. “The AI industrial chain is divided into upstream, midstream, and downstream segments, each with its own independent industry lifecycle, and clear sector rotation shifts and allocation windows. Never treat AI as a 'faith' to hold blindly long-term; turning the AI sector into pure concept speculation will definitely lead to pitfalls.” “The full AI industry cycle spans roughly 20 to 25 years, with the first 10 years already completed. The first decade’s core focus was upstream hardware infrastructure, while the next decade’s will be end-user applications. However, a cycle gap exists currently, and the next 10 to 18 months will be the industry transition window. During this window, do not go all-in; strictly follow industry cycle rules for allocation to avoid volatility risks.” On the other hand, the crypto market will follow liquidity contraction. After the winnowing process, core assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum will stabilize, while junk coin speculation will become ineffective. Investors need to allocate in stages according to industry cycles and be wary of leverage risks.