Analyst: Bitcoin holders as a whole have returned to profitability, but it is still too early to confirm the formation of a new bull market.
2026.07.24 18:18:14
CryptoQuant data shows that Bitcoin’s profitable supply ratio has rebounded from 46.2% on June 30 to 57.5% as of July 22, crossing back above the 50% threshold and nearing 60%. However, analysts note that while Bitcoin holders as a whole are back in profit, this is not enough to confirm the start of a new bull market. CryptoQuant analysts state that past bear market ends typically require two conditions to be met simultaneously: the 30-day simple moving average (SMA) of long-term holders’ Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) remains consistently above 1, and Bitcoin’s profitable supply ratio rises above 64%. This cycle saw a failed breakout earlier: between April 28 and June 1, the average SOPR of long-term holders stayed above 1 for 35 consecutive days, and the profitable supply ratio hit 67%, but both metrics subsequently fell. Since then, the 30-day SMA of long-term holders’ SOPR has remained below 1 for over 50 consecutive days, indicating that on-chain transfers by long-term holders are still predominantly unprofitable. Meanwhile, spot market demand remains weak, while institutional Bitcoin allocations have seen a slight rebound. Analysts add that while current profitability metrics are improving, whether the recovery can be sustained remains to be confirmed.
Analysis: BTC is in a descending wedge compression pattern, awaiting a directional breakout; total market cap expansion for altcoins has not yet begun.
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